Baylor vs LSU: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Kinder's Texas Bowl, 2024)

Tue, Dec 31, 2024, 3:30 PM ESTKinder's Texas Bowl · Neutral site

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Baylor

8-4 · Power #39

final

Final

LSU

8-4 · Power #12

▲ winner

Closing spread

BAY -2.5

✓ LSU W

Total

62.5

▲ Over · 75 pts

Model before kickoff

BAY 31–30 LSU

✗ BAY (51%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenPick’em

CloseBAY -2.5

Total60.5 → 62.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenPick’em

2.5 → BAY

CloseBAY -2.5

2.5 pts toward Baylor

Total

Open60.5

▲ 2

Close62.5

Up 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened Pick’em · closed BAY -2.5 · moved 2.5 toward BAYmodel LSU -8

model LSU -8

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Neutral-site favorites of 0.5–4.5 since 2023: won 45%, covered 42% (44 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 52% (122 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenPick’em

CloseBAY -2.5

Total60.5 → 62.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like BAY as a 2.5-point neutral-site favorite against LSU, the favorite won 8, covered 8, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: LSU won 44–31 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 2 of the 10 similar games. 75 points went over 62.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 56%

Favorite covered

8 of 1080%

Above normal · usually 47%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 49%

Covers above normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: favorite by 12.5 against an average line of 3.6; 59.7 points a game (usually 53.3). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	WVU vs UNC 2023 · Postseason · close · similar season form & situation	-4	30–10	W	U61.75
Close	DUKE vs UCF 2022 · Postseason · close · similar total & season form	-3.25	30–13	W	U62.75
Close	USC vs UTAH 2022 · Week 14 · close · similar spread & situation	-2.75	24–47	L	O67.75
Close	KSU vs TCU 2022 · Week 14 · close · similar spread & situation	-1	31–28	W	U60.5
Close	FRES vs WSU 2022 · Postseason · close · similar situation & season form	-5.5	29–6	W	U54
Close	WKU vs APP 2021 · Postseason · close · similar spread & season form	-1	59–38	W	O67.75
Close	OU vs ORE 2021 · Postseason · close · similar situation & total	-7	47–32	W	O64
Loose	AFA vs LOU 2021 · Postseason · loose · similar season form	-1	31–28	W	O55
Loose	SMU vs CLEM 2024 · Week 15 · loose	-2.5	31–34	L	O56.5
Loose	TEX vs OU 2022 · Week 6 · loose · similar season form	-7.5	49–0	W	U65.25

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
BAY WWWWW	9-3	75%	—	6-1
LSU LLLLW	4-7	36%	0-1	1-2

Venue/role: BAY neutral, as favorite; LSU neutral, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
BAY OOOUU	7-5	58%	8-4
LSU OUUUO	4-7	36%	8-4

Went over in Q4. Of 147 earlier overs in games with totals 58.5–66.5, 29% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BAY	7-3 70%	7-3 70%	7-3 70%
LSU	7-3 70%	4-5 44%	3-6 33%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

BAY−3.0 →+7.0▲ 10.0#40

LSU+17.5 →+14.3▼ 3.2#15

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW16

BAY

Longer bar = better

LSU

#25

Offense

◀ BAY better

#42

#65

Defense

Even

#75

+0.4 #42

Turnovers

◀ BAY better

−0.2 #82

68 plays #54

Pace

LSU faster ▶

71 plays #26

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When BAY has the ball

Advantage: BAY offense

	BAY off	LSU def	Edge
Points / game	34.7 #20	23.8 #56	BAY
Yards / play	6.36 #25	5.87 #90	BAY
PPA / play	+0.20 #30	+0.15 #94	BAY
Success rate	47% #24	41% #61	BAY

When LSU has the ball

Advantage: LSU offense

	LSU off	BAY def	Edge
Points / game	29.3 #55	25.3 #68	Even
Yards / play	6.13 #41	5.58 #69	LSU
PPA / play	+0.19 #35	+0.13 #83	LSU
Success rate	45% #38	39% #38	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

BAY scoring against the LSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BAY scored	7.8 #25	10.3 #31	18.0 #25	8.0 #24	8.7 #31	16.7 #17
LSU allowed	5.5 #80	7.3 #65	12.8 #67	4.2 #24	6.5 #61	10.7 #41

LSU scoring against the BAY defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LSU scored	6.2 #61	10.6 #26	16.8 #33	5.8 #70	6.3 #89	12.1 #88
BAY allowed	7.2 #108	8.3 #85	15.5 #99	4.5 #38	4.7 #19	9.2 #21

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.