Kansas @ Baylor: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 14, 2024)

Sat, Nov 30, 2024, 12:00 PM ESTWeek 14 · at Baylor · Conference game

Weather at kickoff52°F5 mphgusts 14DryWeather watch ›

Kansas

5-6 · Power #35

final

Final

Baylor

7-4 · Power #39

▲ winner

Closing spread

KU -2.5

✓ BAY W

Total

62.5

▼ Under · 62 pts

Model before kickoff

KU 31–29 BAY

✗ KU (56%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenKU -1

CloseKU -2.5

Total60.5 → 62.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenKU -1

1.5 → KU

CloseKU -2.5

1.5 pts toward Kansas

Total

Open60.5

▲ 2

Close62.5

Up 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened KU -1 · closed KU -2.5 · moved 1.5 toward KUmodel KU -1

model KU -1

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 53%, covered 45% (148 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 52% (113 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenKU -1

CloseKU -2.5

Total60.5 → 62.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like KU as a 2.5-point road favorite at BAY, the favorite won 5, covered 3, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: BAY won 45–17 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 62 points stayed under 62.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

3 of 933%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 49%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 2 against an average line of 2.9; 66.4 points a game (usually 53.2). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	ARK @ LSU 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & rest	-3	16–13	P	U59.5
Very close	WASH @ WSU 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & situation	-2.5	51–33	W	O60
Very close	MIA @ FSU 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & situation	-2.5	28–31	L	U61.25
Very close	OKST @ UCF 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & situation	-2.5	3–45	L	U64
Very close	UCLA @ USC 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & situation	-3.5	62–33	W	O65.5
Very close	WAKE @ DUKE 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & rest	-3	31–34	L	U67.5
Very close	OU @ TTU 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & rest	-1.5	48–51	L	O65.5
Very close	APP @ CCU 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar situation & spread	-3	28–35	L	U65.25
Very close	GT @ DUKE 2021 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & total	-4.5	31–27	L	U60.5
Very close	BOIS @ UNLV 2023 · Week 14 · very close · similar rest & season form	-2.5	44–20	W	O62

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
KU WWWWW	5-6	45%	2-3	1-4
BAY WWWWW	8-3	73%	4-1	2-2

Venue/role: KU away, as favorite; BAY home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
KU OOOUU	6-5	55%	5-6
BAY OOOOU	7-4	64%	7-4

Stayed under: it needed 4 in the 4th quarter and got 3. 45% of games with totals 58.5–66.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
KU	4-6 40%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%
BAY	6-4 60%	7-3 70%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

KU 4–19 BAY BAY leads · 23 games since 1971 · BAY has won the last 14 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

KU+7.2 →+8.7▲ 1.5#31

BAY−3.0 →+5.6▲ 8.6#42

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW13

Longer bar = better

BAY

#27

Offense

Even

#38

#85

Defense

BAY better ▶

#61

+0.3 #48

Turnovers

Even

+0.2 #55

65 plays #91

Pace

BAY faster ▶

67 plays #69

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When KU has the ball

Advantage: KU offense

	KU off	BAY def	Edge
Points / game	30.8 #48	26.0 #77	KU
Yards / play	6.40 #28	5.33 #51	KU
PPA / play	+0.26 #18	+0.11 #75	KU
Success rate	48% #12	39% #40	KU

When BAY has the ball

Advantage: BAY offense

	BAY off	KU def	Edge
Points / game	33.7 #29	24.3 #63	BAY
Yards / play	6.24 #37	5.95 #97	BAY
PPA / play	+0.17 #48	+0.15 #92	BAY
Success rate	45% #37	43% #88	BAY

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

KU scoring against the BAY defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
KU scored	7.9 #26	10.7 #27	18.6 #24	5.9 #71	6.3 #95	12.2 #85
BAY allowed	7.2 #111	8.8 #91	16.0 #109	4.3 #33	5.1 #36	9.4 #24

BAY scoring against the KU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BAY scored	7.2 #38	10.5 #29	17.7 #30	6.8 #52	9.2 #21	16.0 #29
KU allowed	3.1 #14	9.8 #108	12.9 #73	3.4 #14	8.0 #99	11.4 #51

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.