TCU @ Cincinnati: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 14, 2024)

Sat, Nov 30, 2024, 6:00 PM ESTWeek 14 · at Cincinnati · Conference game

Weather at kickoff32°F9 mphgusts 20DryCold Over 50% of 115 games since 2023Weather watch ›

TCU

7-4 · Power #34

▲ winner

Final

Cincinnati

5-6 · Power #45

final

Closing spread

TCU -2.5

✓ TCU W

Total

58.5

▼ Under · 33 pts

Model before kickoff

TCU 31–29 CIN

✓ TCU (55%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTCU -2

CloseTCU -2.5

Total58.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenTCU -2

0.5 → TCU

CloseTCU -2.5

0.5 pts toward TCU

Total

Open58.5

no move

Close58.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened TCU -2 · closed TCU -2.5 · moved 0.5 toward TCUmodel CIN -1

model CIN -1

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 54%, covered 45% (152 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTCU -2

CloseTCU -2.5

Total58.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TCU as a 2.5-point road favorite at CIN, the favorite won 4, covered 2, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: TCU won 20–13; the favorite covered, as in 2 of the 10 similar games. 33 points stayed under 58.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

2 of 922%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 49%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: underdog by 5.2 against an average line of 2.6; 59.4 points a game (usually 53.2). Of the 1 over, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	ARK @ LSU 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & season form	-3	16–13	P	U59.5
Very close	WASH @ WSU 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & situation	-2.5	51–33	W	O60
Very close	OKST @ UCF 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & rest	-2.5	3–45	L	U64
Very close	ORST @ CAL 2021 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2	25–39	L	O56.5
Very close	UCF @ CIN 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar situation & rest	-3.5	28–26	L	U60
Very close	MIA @ FSU 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & rest	-2.5	28–31	L	U61.25
Very close	UNC @ NCSU 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & situation	-2.5	20–39	L	O55.5
Very close	COLO @ KU 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & total	-1.5	21–37	L	U59.5
Very close	TCU @ TTU 2021 · Week 6 · very close · similar spread & rest	-2.5	52–31	W	O60.5
Very close	ARK @ MIZ 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & season form	-3	27–29	L	O55.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TCU WLLWW	4-6	40%	2-2	2-5
CIN WLLLL	5-5	50%	2-2	3-3

Venue/role: TCU away, as favorite; CIN home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TCU UOOUO	6-4	60%	7-4
CIN UOOUO	5-5	50%	5-6

Stayed under: it needed 32 in the 4th quarter and got 6. 49% of games with totals 54.5–62.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TCU	6-4 60%	4-5 44%	5-4 56%
CIN	4-6 40%	5-4 56%	4-5 44%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TCU+7.0 →+6.9▼ 0.1#39

CIN−1.7 →+5.0▲ 6.7#45

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW13

TCU

Longer bar = better

CIN

#21

Offense

◀ TCU better

#54

#74

Defense

Even

#84

−0.8 #123

Turnovers

CIN better ▶

−0.2 #85

69 plays #49

Pace

Even

68 plays #57

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TCU has the ball

Advantage: TCU offense

	TCU off	CIN def	Edge
Points / game	34.6 #23	25.0 #70	TCU
Yards / play	6.43 #27	6.16 #108	TCU
PPA / play	+0.26 #17	+0.11 #74	TCU
Success rate	48% #18	42% #82	TCU

When CIN has the ball

Even matchup

	CIN off	TCU def	Edge
Points / game	26.3 #86	27.6 #83	Even
Yards / play	6.26 #35	5.11 #38	Even
PPA / play	+0.17 #49	+0.16 #98	CIN
Success rate	45% #44	42% #77	CIN

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

TCU scoring against the CIN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TCU scored	7.5 #32	10.3 #32	17.8 #29	8.0 #27	8.8 #26	16.8 #20
CIN allowed	4.9 #66	7.6 #68	12.5 #69	5.9 #78	6.5 #64	12.5 #68

CIN scoring against the TCU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CIN scored	9.1 #12	6.5 #106	15.5 #45	4.8 #98	5.9 #104	10.7 #108
TCU allowed	5.6 #81	7.9 #75	13.5 #79	6.5 #90	7.5 #91	14.1 #95

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.