Kent State @ Buffalo: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 14, 2024)

Tue, Nov 26, 2024, 7:00 PM ESTWeek 14 · at Buffalo · Conference game

Weather at kickoff42°F18 mphgusts 36DryWindy Over 48% of 274 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Kent State

0-11 · Power #134

final

Final

Buffalo

7-4 · Power #105

▲ winner

Closing spread

BUFF -23.5

✓ BUFF W

Total

50.5

▼ Under · 50 pts

Model before kickoff

KENT 14–37 BUFF

✓ BUFF (95%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenBUFF -22.5

CloseBUFF -23.5

Total52.5 → 50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenBUFF -22.5

1 → BUFF

CloseBUFF -23.5

1 pt toward Buffalo

Total

Open52.5

▼ 2

Close50.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened BUFF -22.5 · closed BUFF -23.5 · moved 1 toward BUFFmodel BUFF -21.5

model BUFF -21.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 22.5–24.5 since 2023: won 94%, covered 44% (49 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 52% (111 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenBUFF -22.5

CloseBUFF -23.5

Total52.5 → 50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like BUFF as a 23.5-point home favorite against KENT, the favorite won 10, covered 3, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: BUFF won 43–7; the favorite covered, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 50 points stayed under 50.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 92%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 46%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 17.8 against an average line of 22.3; 44.2 points a game (usually 54.7). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	M-OH vs AKR 2021 · Week 7 · close · similar total & rest	-20	34–21	L	O51
Close	BGSU vs KENT 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & season form	-24	27–6	L	U54.5
Close	EMU vs MASS 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & total	-20	20–13	L	U53.5
Close	SDSU vs HAW 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar total & spread	-23.75	16–14	L	U49
Close	WKU vs KENN 2024 · Week 10 · close · similar total & situation	-23.5	31–14	L	U49
Close	TLSA vs TEM 2021 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & spread	-22	44–10	W	O50.5
Close	JXST vs NMSU 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar spread	-21	54–13	W	O58.5
Loose	ORST vs COLO 2022 · Week 8 · loose · similar rest & spread	-23	42–9	W	O47.5
Loose	LIB vs AKR 2022 · Week 4 · loose · similar rest & season form	-26.5	21–12	L	U53
Loose	SC vs VAN 2021 · Week 7 · loose · similar rest & total	-18.75	21–20	L	U50

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
KENT WLLWL	3-7	30%	2-3	3-6
BUFF LLWLW	6-5	55%	3-2	3-1

Venue/role: KENT away, as underdog; BUFF home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
KENT UOUUO	6-4	60%	0-11
BUFF OOOOO	8-3	73%	7-4

Stayed under: it needed 11 in the 4th quarter and got 10. 54% of games with totals 46.5–54.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
KENT	0-10 0%	3-6 33%	5-4 56%
BUFF	6-4 60%	5-5 50%	8-2 80%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

KENT 0–1 BUFF BUFF leads · 1 game since 2023 · BUFF has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 21 2023	Buffalo 24 @ Kent State 6	BUFF -6.5	BUFF W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

KENT−20.0 →−29.6▼ 9.6#134

BUFF−12.2 →−12.4▼ 0.2#117

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW13

KENT

Longer bar = better

BUFF

#136

Offense

BUFF better ▶

#95

#135

Defense

BUFF better ▶

#91

−0.9 #126

Turnovers

BUFF better ▶

+0.6 #28

57 plays #135

Pace

BUFF faster ▶

66 plays #75

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When KENT has the ball

Advantage: BUFF defense

	KENT off	BUFF def	Edge
Points / game	14.5 #136	29.9 #102	BUFF
Yards / play	4.11 #137	5.83 #93	BUFF
PPA / play	−0.10 #133	+0.11 #75	BUFF
Success rate	30% #137	44% #94	BUFF

When BUFF has the ball

Advantage: BUFF offense

	BUFF off	KENT def	Edge
Points / game	27.8 #71	44.2 #137	BUFF
Yards / play	5.22 #114	7.08 #136	BUFF
PPA / play	+0.12 #77	+0.31 #135	BUFF
Success rate	39% #117	50% #133	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

KENT scoring against the BUFF defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
KENT scored	2.8 #127	4.4 #128	7.2 #133	2.2 #129	5.2 #118	7.4 #130
BUFF allowed	4.0 #37	9.7 #104	13.7 #83	6.4 #87	9.5 #120	15.9 #113

BUFF scoring against the KENT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BUFF scored	6.0 #60	5.9 #117	11.9 #98	7.7 #30	7.4 #55	15.1 #45
KENT allowed	12.6 #134	14.6 #133	27.3 #134	9.8 #128	7.1 #78	16.9 #121

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.