Buffalo vs Liberty: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Bahamas Bowl, 2024)

Sat, Jan 4, 2025, 11:00 AM ESTBahamas Bowl · Neutral site

Weather at kickoff73°F15 mphgusts 30DryWindy Over 48% of 274 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Buffalo

8-4 · Power #105

▲ winner

Final

Liberty

8-3 · Power #95

final

Closing spread

BUFF -3.5

✓ BUFF W

Total

50.5

▼ Under · 33 pts

Model before kickoff

BUFF 26–25 LIB

✓ BUFF (53%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenLIB -2

CloseBUFF -3.5

Total51.5 → 50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenLIB -2

5.5 → BUFF

CloseBUFF -3.5

5.5 pts toward Buffalo

Total

Open51.5

▼ 1

Close50.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened LIB -2 · closed BUFF -3.5 · moved 5.5 toward BUFFmodel LIB -8

model LIB -8

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Neutral-site favorites of 1.5–5.5 since 2023: won 48%, covered 40% (58 games)ⓘ

Crossed 3The team the line moved toward covered 42% (62 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenLIB -2

CloseBUFF -3.5

Total51.5 → 50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like BUFF as a 3.5-point neutral-site favorite against LIB, the favorite won 6, covered 4, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: BUFF won 26–7; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 33 points stayed under 50.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 58%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 2.7 against an average line of 3.5; 50.1 points a game (usually 53.1). Of the 3 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	WYO vs TOL 2023 · Postseason · very close · similar spread & situation	-4.5	16–15	L	U44
Close	SDSU vs UTSA 2021 · Postseason · close · similar spread & situation	-3	38–24	W	O48
Close	GASO vs OHIO 2023 · Postseason · close · similar season form & situation	-1.5	21–41	L	O48.5
Close	TOL vs LIB 2022 · Postseason · close · similar situation & season form	-3.5	21–19	L	U51
Close	NMSU vs FRES 2023 · Postseason · close · similar season form	-3	10–37	L	U53
Close	RUTG vs MIA 2023 · Postseason · close · similar spread & season form	-2.75	31–24	W	O40.75
Loose	ARST vs NIU 2023 · Postseason · loose · similar total & season form	-2.5	19–21	L	U53.75
Loose	MD vs VT 2021 · Postseason · loose · similar spread	-4.5	54–10	W	O55.5
Loose	AFA vs JMU 2023 · Postseason · loose · similar situation & spread	-2.5	31–21	W	O44
Loose	SDSU vs MTSU 2022 · Postseason · loose · similar situation & total	-7	23–25	L	O47

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
BUFF LWLWW	7-5	58%	—	4-1
LIB LWLWL	3-8	27%	—	—

Venue/role: BUFF neutral, as favorite; LIB neutral, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
BUFF OOOOU	8-4	67%	8-4
LIB UUOOU	5-6	45%	8-3

Stayed under: it needed 35 in the 4th quarter and got 17. 55% of games with totals 46.5–54.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BUFF	7-3 70%	6-4 60%	8-2 80%
LIB	7-3 70%	3-7 30%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

BUFF 0–1 LIB LIB leads · 1 game since 2023 · LIB has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 16 2023	Liberty 55 @ Buffalo 27	LIB -2.5	LIB W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

BUFF−12.2 →−11.5▲ 0.7#114

LIB+3.4 →−4.2▼ 7.6#83

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW16

BUFF

Longer bar = better

LIB

#85

Offense

LIB better ▶

#31

#78

Defense

LIB better ▶

#44

+0.5 #34

Turnovers

◀ BUFF better

0.0 #63

67 plays #72

Pace

LIB faster ▶

70 plays #25

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When BUFF has the ball

Advantage: LIB defense

	BUFF off	LIB def	Edge
Points / game	29.1 #58	23.3 #49	Even
Yards / play	5.29 #107	5.44 #60	LIB
PPA / play	+0.14 #68	+0.03 #29	LIB
Success rate	40% #106	39% #38	LIB

When LIB has the ball

Advantage: LIB offense

	LIB off	BUFF def	Edge
Points / game	30.7 #48	28.0 #86	LIB
Yards / play	6.18 #39	5.71 #78	LIB
PPA / play	+0.20 #31	+0.09 #65	LIB
Success rate	50% #6	43% #84	LIB

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

BUFF scoring against the LIB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BUFF scored	6.6 #54	6.5 #102	13.1 #84	7.7 #26	7.6 #53	15.3 #39
LIB allowed	5.8 #85	6.5 #47	12.4 #63	5.0 #54	5.4 #35	10.4 #36

LIB scoring against the BUFF defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LIB scored	3.9 #114	10.3 #31	14.2 #67	4.6 #101	10.6 #4	15.3 #38
BUFF allowed	3.7 #25	8.9 #96	12.6 #66	6.4 #95	8.8 #112	15.2 #109

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.