Minnesota vs Virginia Tech: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Duke's Mayo Bowl, 2024)

Fri, Jan 3, 2025, 7:30 PM ESTDuke's Mayo Bowl · Neutral site

Weather at kickoff39°F16 mphgusts 34DryWindy Over 48% of 274 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Minnesota

7-5 · Power #26

▲ winner

Final

Virginia Tech

6-6 · Power #38

final

Closing spread

MINN -10.5

✓ MINN W

Total

43.5

▼ Under · 34 pts

Model before kickoff

MINN 24–15 VT

✓ MINN (73%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMINN -4.5

CloseMINN -10.5

Total42.5 → 43.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenMINN -4.5

6 → MINN

CloseMINN -10.5

6 pts toward Minnesota

Total

Open42.5

▲ 1

Close43.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened MINN -4.5 · closed MINN -10.5 · moved 6 toward MINNmodel Pick’em

model Pick’em

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Crossed 7The team the line moved toward covered 58% (36 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMINN -4.5

CloseMINN -10.5

Total42.5 → 43.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like MINN as a 10.5-point neutral-site favorite against VT, the favorite won 8, covered 6, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: MINN won 24–10; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 34 points stayed under 43.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 75%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 52%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 7.6 against an average line of 6.1; 47.4 points a game (usually 54.9). Of the 2 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	MINN vs SYR 2022 · Postseason · close · similar season form & situation	-10.5	28–20	L	O44.75
Close	VT vs TULN 2023 · Postseason · close · similar season form & situation	-13	41–20	W	O44
Loose	WYO vs TOL 2023 · Postseason · loose · similar season form & situation	-4.5	16–15	L	U44
Loose	MSST vs ILL 2022 · Postseason · loose · similar total & season form	-3.5	19–10	W	U46.5
Loose	RUTG vs MIA 2023 · Postseason · loose · similar season form & situation	-2.75	31–24	W	O40.75
Loose	SDSU vs MTSU 2022 · Postseason · loose · similar situation & total	-7	23–25	L	O47
Loose	AUB vs MD 2023 · Postseason · loose · similar situation & season form	-4	13–31	L	U48.5
Loose	ARK vs PSU 2021 · Postseason · loose · similar season form & situation	-3.5	24–10	W	U51
Loose	SDSU vs UTSA 2021 · Postseason · loose · similar situation & season form	-3	38–24	W	O48
Loose	KSU vs LSU 2021 · Postseason · loose · similar season form & team ratings	-9.5	42–20	W	O47

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
MINN WWLWW	9-3	75%	—	6-1
VT WLLLW	6-6	50%	—	1-1

Venue/role: MINN neutral, as favorite; VT neutral, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MINN OUOOU	6-6	50%	7-5
VT UOUOO	8-4	67%	6-6

Stayed under: it needed 13 in the 4th quarter and got 3. 56% of games with totals 39.5–47.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MINN	6-4 60%	8-2 80%	5-5 50%
VT	5-5 50%	6-4 60%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MINN−1.4 →+8.9▲ 10.3#28

VT+4.6 →+8.8▲ 4.2#30

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW16

MINN

Longer bar = better

#69

Offense

Even

#75

#19

Defense

◀ MINN better

#35

+0.8 #13

Turnovers

◀ MINN better

+0.6 #31

62 plays #114

Pace

VT faster ▶

65 plays #86

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MINN has the ball

Advantage: VT defense

	MINN off	VT def	Edge
Points / game	26.3 #80	22.8 #39	VT
Yards / play	5.32 #102	5.26 #43	VT
PPA / play	+0.15 #57	+0.02 #23	VT
Success rate	45% #38	39% #34	Even

When VT has the ball

Advantage: MINN defense

	VT off	MINN def	Edge
Points / game	29.7 #55	17.5 #10	MINN
Yards / play	5.82 #69	4.77 #12	MINN
PPA / play	+0.10 #86	+0.01 #20	MINN
Success rate	42% #90	39% #35	MINN

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

MINN scoring against the VT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MINN scored	4.9 #90	9.0 #53	13.9 #74	5.2 #89	7.3 #61	12.4 #81
VT allowed	4.0 #28	4.3 #10	8.3 #12	8.3 #121	5.0 #28	13.3 #79

VT scoring against the MINN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
VT scored	6.7 #52	7.7 #78	14.3 #63	5.3 #82	10.0 #9	15.3 #38
MINN allowed	2.3 #5	6.4 #42	8.8 #15	3.9 #16	4.8 #23	8.8 #13

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.