Clemson @ Texas: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (College Football Playoff First Round, 2024)

Sat, Dec 21, 2024, 4:00 PM ESTCollege Football Playoff First Round · at Texas

Weather at kickoff59°F4 mphgusts 12DryWeather watch ›

Clemson

10-3 · Power #17

final

Final

Texas

11-2 · Power #2

▲ winner

Closing spread

TEX -13.5

✓ TEX W

Total

49.5

▲ Over · 62 pts

Model before kickoff

CLEM 20–34 TEX

✓ TEX (83%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTEX -10.5

CloseTEX -13.5

Total54.5 → 49.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenTEX -10.5

3 → TEX

CloseTEX -13.5

3 pts toward Texas

Total

Open54.5

▼ 5

Close49.5

Down 5 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened TEX -10.5 · closed TEX -13.5 · moved 3 toward TEXmodel TEX -14

model TEX -14

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 12.5–14.5 since 2023: won 83%, covered 47% (82 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 53% (116 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTEX -10.5

CloseTEX -13.5

Total54.5 → 49.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TEX as a 13.5-point home favorite against CLEM, the favorite won 10, covered 4, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: TEX won 38–24; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 62 points went over 49.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 80%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 46%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 15.7 against an average line of 14.6; 51.1 points a game (usually 54.6). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	ALA vs MIZ 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar total & season form	-16	34–0	W	U51.5
Close	CIN vs HOU 2021 · Week 14 · close · similar season form & situation	-10.5	35–20	W	O52.5
Loose	CLEM vs SYR 2022 · Week 8 · loose	-14	27–21	L	U50
Loose	TA&M vs SC 2023 · Week 9 · loose	-17	30–17	L	U51.5
Loose	FSU vs SYR 2023 · Week 7 · loose · similar season form	-18.5	41–3	W	U53
Loose	LSU vs UAB 2022 · Week 12 · loose · similar situation & season form	-15.25	41–10	W	O50.5
Loose	MSST vs AUB 2022 · Week 10 · loose · similar spread	-12.5	39–33	L	O50.5
Loose	TEX vs ISU 2022 · Week 7 · loose · similar season form	-15.5	24–21	L	U48.5
Loose	MIZ vs FLA 2023 · Week 12 · loose · similar spread	-12.5	33–31	L	O56.5
Loose	UGA vs MIZ 2023 · Week 10 · loose · similar season form & team ratings	-14.5	30–21	L	U55.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CLEM WLLLW	6-7	46%	2-2	1-1
TEX WLLWL	7-6	54%	4-3	7-6

Venue/role: CLEM away, as underdog; TEX home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
CLEM UUOUO	5-8	38%	10-3
TEX OUUUU	4-9	31%	11-2

Went over in Q4. Of 373 earlier overs in games with totals 45.5–53.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CLEM	8-2 80%	4-6 40%	3-7 30%
TEX	8-2 80%	4-6 40%	2-8 20%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

CLEM+12.9 →+14.0▲ 1.1#16

TEX+19.1 →+23.9▲ 4.8#2

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW16

CLEM

Longer bar = better

TEX

#21

Offense

Even

#33

#47

Defense

TEX better ▶

+1.2 #5

Turnovers

◀ CLEM better

+0.5 #38

72 plays #12

Pace

Even

71 plays #19

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When CLEM has the ball

Even matchup

	CLEM off	TEX def	Edge
Points / game	35.5 #15	12.5 #2	Even
Yards / play	6.30 #32	4.01 #1	TEX
PPA / play	+0.26 #15	−0.14 #2	Even
Success rate	47% #23	38% #19	Even

When TEX has the ball

Even matchup

	TEX off	CLEM def	Edge
Points / game	33.6 #25	22.3 #43	Even
Yards / play	6.28 #33	5.44 #60	TEX
PPA / play	+0.18 #41	+0.07 #50	Even
Success rate	46% #32	39% #35	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

CLEM scoring against the TEX defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CLEM scored	10.9 #4	10.3 #31	21.2 #7	8.5 #18	5.8 #102	14.3 #58
TEX allowed	1.3 #1	3.7 #5	5.0 #1	3.9 #21	3.1 #3	7.0 #5

TEX scoring against the CLEM defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TEX scored	8.3 #18	11.6 #15	19.9 #13	6.3 #60	7.2 #68	13.5 #66
CLEM allowed	2.1 #6	6.3 #38	8.4 #14	3.9 #21	10.0 #123	13.9 #92

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.