Clemson vs SMU: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 15, 2024)

Sat, Dec 7, 2024, 8:00 PM ESTWeek 15 · Neutral site

Weather at kickoff39°F9 mphgusts 16DryCold Over 50% of 115 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Clemson

9-3 · Power #17

▲ winner

Final

SMU

11-1 · Power #15

final

Closing spread

SMU -2.5

✓ CLEM W

Total

56.5

▲ Over · 65 pts

Model before kickoff

CLEM 27–29 SMU

✗ SMU (56%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenCLEM -2

CloseSMU -2.5

Total53.5 → 56.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenCLEM -2

4.5 → SMU

CloseSMU -2.5

4.5 pts toward SMU

Total

Open53.5

▲ 3

Close56.5

Up 3 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened CLEM -2 · closed SMU -2.5 · moved 4.5 toward SMUmodel SMU -0.5

model SMU -0.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Lines that moved 3.5+ pts toward the favorite: that team covered 43% (69 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenCLEM -2

CloseSMU -2.5

Total53.5 → 56.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like SMU as a 2.5-point neutral-site favorite against CLEM, the favorite won 8, covered 8, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: CLEM won 34–31 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 2 of the 10 similar games. 65 points went over 56.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

8 of 1080%

Above normal · usually 47%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 49%

Covers above normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: favorite by 10.4 against an average line of 4.1; 60.4 points a game (usually 53.3). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	KSU vs TCU 2022 · Week 14 · close · similar rest & team ratings	-1	31–28	W	U60.5
Close	PSU vs UTAH 2022 · Postseason · close · similar team ratings & season form	-1.5	35–21	W	O55
Close	ARK vs PSU 2021 · Postseason · close · similar situation	-3.5	24–10	W	U51
Close	USC vs UTAH 2022 · Week 14 · close · similar rest & season form	-2.75	24–47	L	O67.75
Loose	MICH vs WASH 2023 · Postseason · loose · similar rest & season form	-5	34–13	W	U55.5
Loose	PSU vs MISS 2023 · Postseason · loose · similar season form & total	-5.5	25–38	L	O52.5
Loose	OU vs TEX 2021 · Week 6 · loose · similar rest & team ratings	-4	55–48	W	O65.5
Loose	DUKE vs UCF 2022 · Postseason · loose · similar spread & situation	-3.25	30–13	W	U62.75
Loose	TEX vs OU 2022 · Week 6 · loose · similar rest & team ratings	-7.5	49–0	W	U65.25
Loose	OU vs ORE 2021 · Postseason · loose	-7	47–32	W	O64

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
CLEM LWLLL	5-7	42%	0-1	0-1
SMU LWLWW	6-4	60%	—	5-4

Venue/role: CLEM neutral, as underdog; SMU neutral, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
CLEM UUUOU	4-8	33%	9-3
SMU OOOUU	5-5	50%	11-1

Went over in Q4. Of 340 earlier overs in games with totals 52.5–60.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CLEM	8-2 80%	4-6 40%	3-7 30%
SMU	9-1 90%	6-3 67%	5-4 56%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

CLEM+12.9 →+14.1▲ 1.2#16

SMU+10.3 →+14.6▲ 4.3#14

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW14

CLEM

Longer bar = better

SMU

#17

Offense

Even

#25

#41

Defense

SMU better ▶

#10

+1.2 #6

Turnovers

◀ CLEM better

+0.2 #57

72 plays #13

Pace

◀ CLEM faster

68 plays #54

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When CLEM has the ball

Even matchup

	CLEM off	SMU def	Edge
Points / game	35.7 #15	19.8 #18	Even
Yards / play	6.45 #25	4.66 #10	Even
PPA / play	+0.28 #11	−0.09 #3	Even
Success rate	48% #17	36% #9	Even

When SMU has the ball

Even matchup

	SMU off	CLEM def	Edge
Points / game	39.2 #4	21.6 #35	SMU
Yards / play	6.47 #24	5.45 #60	SMU
PPA / play	+0.23 #23	+0.06 #45	SMU
Success rate	45% #49	38% #25	CLEM

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

CLEM scoring against the SMU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CLEM scored	10.1 #6	10.9 #23	21.0 #9	8.6 #19	6.1 #94	14.7 #54
SMU allowed	3.4 #19	5.3 #20	8.8 #16	5.8 #74	4.7 #22	10.5 #40

SMU scoring against the CLEM defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SMU scored	10.4 #5	12.4 #7	22.8 #1	6.0 #65	9.8 #14	15.8 #30
CLEM allowed	1.7 #5	6.8 #55	8.5 #15	3.7 #16	9.4 #119	13.1 #77

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.