UNLV @ Boise State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 15, 2024)

Fri, Dec 6, 2024, 8:00 PM ESTWeek 15 · at Boise State

Weather at kickoff25°F1 mphDryCold Over 50% of 115 games since 2023Weather watch ›

UNLV

10-2 · Power #42

final

Final

Boise State

11-1 · Power #29

▲ winner

Closing spread

BOIS -3.5

✓ BOIS W

Total

57.5

▼ Under · 28 pts

Model before kickoff

UNLV 29–33 BOIS

✓ BOIS (62%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenBOIS -4.5

CloseBOIS -3.5

Total60.5 → 57.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenBOIS -4.5

1 → UNLV

CloseBOIS -3.5

1 pt toward UNLV

Total

Open60.5

▼ 3

Close57.5

Down 3 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened BOIS -4.5 · closed BOIS -3.5 · moved 1 toward UNLVmodel BOIS -6.5

model BOIS -6.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 58%, covered 49% (209 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 51% (140 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenBOIS -4.5

CloseBOIS -3.5

Total60.5 → 57.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like BOIS as a 3.5-point home favorite against UNLV, the favorite won 6, covered 4, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: BOIS won 21–7; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 28 points stayed under 57.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 58%

Favorite covered

4 of 944%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 50%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 1.6 against an average line of 4.2; 50.8 points a game (usually 53.2). Of the 2 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	PITT vs CAL 2024 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	17–15	L	U57.5
Very close	MD vs PUR 2022 · Week 6 · very close · similar spread & rest	-3	29–31	L	O59.5
Very close	SMU vs PITT 2024 · Week 10 · very close · similar season form & total	-7	48–25	W	O55.5
Very close	LIB vs ARMY 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & rest	-3	16–31	L	U51.75
Very close	WSU vs ARIZ 2023 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & total	-7.5	6–44	L	U56.5
Very close	UTAH vs ORE 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3	38–7	W	U58.5
Very close	NCST vs LOU 2021 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & total	-6	28–13	W	U57
Very close	MIZ vs ARK 2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar spread & rest	-3	28–21	W	U51
Very close	MISS vs TA&M 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & rest	-3	38–35	P	O52.5
Very close	AUB vs ARK 2024 · Week 4 · very close · similar spread & rest	-2.5	14–24	L	U53.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UNLV LLWWW	7-4	64%	3-2	1-1
BOIS WLWLL	7-4	64%	3-2	6-4

Venue/role: UNLV away, as underdog; BOIS home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UNLV UOOUU	6-5	55%	10-2
BOIS OUOUU	6-5	55%	11-1

Stayed under: it needed 37 in the 4th quarter and got 7. 52% of games with totals 53.5–61.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UNLV	8-2 80%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%
BOIS	10-0 100%	6-3 67%	4-5 44%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

UNLV 0–2 BOIS BOIS leads · 2 games since 2023 · BOIS has won the last 2 meetings

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 25 2024	Boise State 29 @ UNLV 24	BOIS -3.5	BOIS W
Dec 2 2023	Boise State 44 @ UNLV 20	BOIS -2	BOIS W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UNLV−2.0 →+6.2▲ 8.2#42

BOIS+2.2 →+9.0▲ 6.8#28

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW14

UNLV

Longer bar = better

BOIS

#30

Offense

BOIS better ▶

#27

Defense

◀ UNLV better

#55

+1.2 #5

Turnovers

◀ UNLV better

+0.5 #36

67 plays #67

Pace

BOIS faster ▶

69 plays #38

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UNLV has the ball

Advantage: UNLV offense

	UNLV off	BOIS def	Edge
Points / game	38.7 #7	23.2 #51	UNLV
Yards / play	6.44 #25	5.65 #74	UNLV
PPA / play	+0.21 #26	+0.07 #53	UNLV
Success rate	43% #63	39% #40	BOIS

When BOIS has the ball

Advantage: BOIS offense

	BOIS off	UNLV def	Edge
Points / game	40.6 #3	22.0 #38	BOIS
Yards / play	6.91 #4	5.06 #32	BOIS
PPA / play	+0.34 #4	+0.01 #23	Even
Success rate	48% #13	37% #15	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

UNLV scoring against the BOIS defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UNLV scored	9.3 #9	11.9 #13	21.2 #9	8.7 #20	8.6 #35	17.3 #15
BOIS allowed	4.3 #41	7.1 #58	11.3 #47	4.8 #44	7.0 #73	11.8 #58

BOIS scoring against the UNLV defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BOIS scored	9.5 #8	12.9 #4	22.4 #3	6.0 #65	12.2 #3	18.2 #7
UNLV allowed	4.6 #52	5.8 #28	10.3 #34	5.2 #58	6.0 #55	11.2 #49

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.