Arkansas @ Missouri: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 14, 2024)

Sat, Nov 30, 2024, 3:30 PM ESTWeek 14 · at Missouri · Conference game

Weather at kickoff29°F6 mphgusts 13Wet0.0 mmWet Over 45% of 309 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Arkansas

6-5 · Power #32

final

Final

Missouri

8-3 · Power #23

▲ winner

Closing spread

MIZ -3.5

✓ MIZ W

Total

51.5

▼ Under · 49 pts

Model before kickoff

ARK 24–28 MIZ

✓ MIZ (61%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMIZ -3

CloseMIZ -3.5

Total54.5 → 51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenMIZ -3

0.5 → MIZ

CloseMIZ -3.5

0.5 pts toward Missouri

Total

Open54.5

▼ 3

Close51.5

Down 3 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened MIZ -3 · closed MIZ -3.5 · moved 0.5 toward MIZmodel MIZ -4.5

model MIZ -4.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 57%, covered 48% (200 games)ⓘ

Moved off 3The team the line moved toward covered 54% (28 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMIZ -3

CloseMIZ -3.5

Total54.5 → 51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like MIZ as a 3.5-point home favorite against ARK, the favorite won 5, covered 4, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: MIZ won 28–21; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 49 points stayed under 51.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 58%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 5.3 against an average line of 3.1; 49.9 points a game (usually 53.1). Of the 2 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	UK vs MIZ 2023 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & total	-2	21–38	L	O50.5
Very close	ARK vs AUB 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & rest	-2.5	10–48	L	O47
Very close	WISC vs PUR 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & season form	-1.5	35–24	W	O51.5
Very close	CIN vs ASU 2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar total & rest	-5	24–14	W	U51
Very close	NCST vs FSU 2022 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	19–17	L	U50.5
Very close	PITT vs SYR 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	19–9	W	U47.5
Very close	LIB vs ARMY 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & total	-3	16–31	L	U51.75
Very close	AUB vs MSST 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & situation	-5.75	34–43	L	O51
Very close	UK vs LSU 2021 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & total	-2	42–21	W	O50.5
Very close	BAY vs KSU 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & rest	-2.5	3–31	L	U52.25

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ARK LWLWL	7-3	70%	3-0	5-2
MIZ LLWWW	6-5	55%	3-3	4-3

Venue/role: ARK away, as underdog; MIZ home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ARK UOOUO	5-5	50%	6-5
MIZ UUOOO	5-6	45%	8-3

Stayed under: it needed 28 in the 4th quarter and got 25. 55% of games with totals 47.5–55.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ARK	5-5 50%	6-3 67%	4-5 44%
MIZ	7-3 70%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

ARK 0–1 MIZ MIZ leads · 1 game since 2023 · MIZ has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 24 2023	Missouri 48 @ Arkansas 14	MIZ -10	MIZ W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ARK+3.1 →+8.3▲ 5.2#32

MIZ+14.2 →+10.3▼ 3.9#23

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW13

ARK

Longer bar = better

MIZ

#30

Offense

◀ ARK better

#65

#57

Defense

MIZ better ▶

#33

−0.6 #114

Turnovers

MIZ better ▶

+0.5 #35

70 plays #32

Pace

MIZ faster ▶

72 plays #17

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ARK has the ball

Even matchup

	ARK off	MIZ def	Edge
Points / game	31.1 #46	20.0 #21	MIZ
Yards / play	6.52 #20	5.45 #61	ARK
PPA / play	+0.19 #38	+0.01 #23	Even
Success rate	48% #16	38% #26	Even

When MIZ has the ball

Even matchup

	MIZ off	ARK def	Edge
Points / game	29.2 #57	24.6 #66	Even
Yards / play	5.48 #91	5.43 #57	ARK
PPA / play	+0.15 #57	+0.07 #53	Even
Success rate	44% #56	40% #50	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

ARK scoring against the MIZ defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ARK scored	7.5 #32	8.5 #61	16.0 #41	6.3 #61	8.8 #26	15.1 #46
MIZ allowed	4.0 #37	6.3 #40	10.3 #31	4.7 #46	4.4 #15	9.1 #21

MIZ scoring against the ARK defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MIZ scored	7.1 #40	6.5 #103	13.6 #77	7.4 #40	7.3 #60	14.6 #54
ARK allowed	4.4 #47	5.8 #24	10.2 #29	7.4 #108	6.4 #61	13.7 #91

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.