Iowa vs Missouri: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (TransPerfect Music City Bowl, 2024)

Mon, Dec 30, 2024, 2:30 PM ESTTransPerfect Music City Bowl · Neutral site

Weather at kickoff59°F6 mphgusts 14DryWeather watch ›

Iowa

8-4 · Power #30

final

Final

Missouri

9-3 · Power #23

▲ winner

Closing spread

MIZ -1.5

✓ MIZ W

Total

41.5

▲ Over · 51 pts

Model before kickoff

IOWA 22–23 MIZ

✓ MIZ (54%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMIZ -1.5

CloseMIZ -1.5

Total41.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenMIZ -1.5

no move

CloseMIZ -1.5

No change since the open

Total

Open41.5

no move

Close41.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened MIZ -1.5 · unchangedmodel MIZ -1.5 matches the line

model MIZ -1.5 = line ✓

Openline modelKickoff

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMIZ -1.5

CloseMIZ -1.5

Total41.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like MIZ as a 1.5-point neutral-site favorite against IOWA, the favorite won 5, covered 4, and 2 went over the total.

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This game: MIZ won 27–24; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 51 points went over 41.5, as in 2 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 55%

Favorite covered

4 of 944%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

2 of 1020%

Normal range · usually 49%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: underdog by 2.3 against an average line of 3.5; 38.5 points a game (usually 53.3). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	AFA vs ARMY 2021 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	14–21	L	U37.5
Close	CLEM vs ISU 2021 · Postseason · close · similar situation & spread	-1.75	20–13	W	U45
Close	UK vs IOWA 2021 · Postseason · close · similar situation & team ratings	-3	20–17	P	U43.5
Close	TROY vs DUKE 2023 · Postseason · close · similar situation & rest	-6.75	10–17	L	U44.25
Close	OKST vs ND 2021 · Postseason · close · similar rest & total	-1	37–35	W	O45
Close	LOU vs CIN 2022 · Postseason · close · similar rest & situation	-2.5	24–7	W	U38.5
Close	WISC vs ND 2021 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & season form	-6	13–41	L	O44
Close	MINN vs WVU 2021 · Postseason · close · similar total & season form	-5.75	18–6	W	U44.75
Close	AUB vs MD 2023 · Postseason · close · similar situation & season form	-4	13–31	L	U48.5
Close	NCST vs MD 2022 · Postseason · close · similar situation & season form	-2	12–16	L	U45.25

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
IOWA WWLWL	5-6	45%	—	0-1
MIZ LWWWW	7-5	58%	—	5-3

Venue/role: IOWA neutral, as underdog; MIZ neutral, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
IOWA OOUOU	8-3	73%	8-4
MIZ UOOOU	5-7	42%	9-3

Went over in Q3. Of 170 earlier overs in games with totals 37.5–45.5, 33% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
IOWA	7-3 70%	5-5 50%	7-3 70%
MIZ	7-3 70%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

IOWA+2.5 →+8.8▲ 6.3#31

MIZ+14.2 →+10.3▼ 3.9#22

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW16

IOWA

Longer bar = better

MIZ

#78

Offense

MIZ better ▶

#63

#34

Defense

Even

#37

+1.1 #6

Turnovers

◀ IOWA better

+0.6 #30

59 plays #132

Pace

MIZ faster ▶

71 plays #17

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When IOWA has the ball

Advantage: MIZ defense

	IOWA off	MIZ def	Edge
Points / game	28.0 #70	20.1 #19	MIZ
Yards / play	5.64 #81	5.44 #59	MIZ
PPA / play	+0.12 #79	+0.01 #23	MIZ
Success rate	42% #83	40% #45	MIZ

When MIZ has the ball

Advantage: IOWA defense

	MIZ off	IOWA def	Edge
Points / game	29.1 #58	17.1 #9	IOWA
Yards / play	5.48 #89	4.95 #26	IOWA
PPA / play	+0.16 #50	+0.03 #28	IOWA
Success rate	44% #54	42% #73	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

IOWA scoring against the MIZ defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
IOWA scored	3.3 #123	5.4 #120	8.8 #127	9.8 #6	9.4 #19	19.3 #3
MIZ allowed	3.7 #27	6.3 #38	10.0 #24	4.9 #49	4.6 #15	9.5 #21

MIZ scoring against the IOWA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MIZ scored	7.1 #37	6.0 #111	13.1 #83	7.0 #47	8.2 #42	15.2 #42
IOWA allowed	1.6 #3	6.3 #33	7.8 #8	4.6 #41	4.7 #19	9.3 #20

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.