SMU @ Penn State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (College Football Playoff First Round, 2024)

Sat, Dec 21, 2024, 12:00 PM ESTCollege Football Playoff First Round · at Penn State

Weather at kickoff25°F14 mphgusts 28DryWindy Over 48% of 274 games since 2023Weather watch ›

SMU

11-2 · Power #15

final

Final

Penn State

11-2 · Power #6

▲ winner

Closing spread

PSU -7.5

✓ PSU W

Total

50.5

▼ Under · 48 pts

Model before kickoff

SMU 21–29 PSU

✓ PSU (71%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenPSU -8.5

ClosePSU -7.5

Total52.5 → 50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenPSU -8.5

1 → SMU

ClosePSU -7.5

1 pt toward SMU

Total

Open52.5

▼ 2

Close50.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened PSU -8.5 · closed PSU -7.5 · moved 1 toward SMUmodel PSU -8.5

model PSU -8.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 6.5–8.5 since 2023: won 72%, covered 55% (123 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 50% (141 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenPSU -8.5

ClosePSU -7.5

Total52.5 → 50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like PSU as a 7.5-point home favorite against SMU, the favorite won 9, covered 9, and 6 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: PSU won 38–10; the favorite covered, as in 9 of the 10 similar games. 48 points stayed under 50.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 70%

Favorite covered

9 of 1090%

Above normal · usually 51%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 51%

Covers above normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: favorite by 13.5 against an average line of 6.8; 48.5 points a game (usually 53.8). Of the 4 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	ALA vs TENN 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar spread & season form	-8.5	34–20	W	O47.5
Close	SMU vs PITT 2024 · Week 10 · close · similar spread & season form	-7	48–25	W	O55.5
Close	MICH vs PSU 2022 · Week 7 · close · similar spread & total	-7	41–17	W	O48.75
Close	UGA vs TENN 2024 · Week 12 · close · similar spread & total	-8.5	31–17	W	O47
Close	TA&M vs AUB 2021 · Week 10 · close · similar season form & total	-4.5	20–3	W	U49.5
Close	WISC vs MD 2022 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & spread	-5	23–10	W	U47.5
Close	LOU vs SMU 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar spread & team ratings	-6.5	27–34	L	O55
Close	CLEM vs LOU 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar spread & season form	-7	31–16	W	U52
Close	CIN vs HOU 2021 · Week 14 · close · similar total & season form	-10.5	35–20	W	O52.5
Close	TENN vs TA&M 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar season form & total	-3	20–13	W	U54.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SMU WLWWL	6-5	55%	3-2	1-0
PSU WWLWL	5-7	42%	2-4	5-5

Venue/role: SMU away, as underdog; PSU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
SMU OOUUO	6-5	55%	11-2
PSU UOOOO	6-6	50%	11-2

Stayed under: it needed 17 in the 4th quarter and got 14. 54% of games with totals 46.5–54.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SMU	9-1 90%	6-3 67%	6-3 67%
PSU	8-2 80%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

SMU+10.3 →+14.8▲ 4.5#13

PSU+18.8 →+19.6▲ 0.8#8

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW16

SMU

Longer bar = better

PSU

#27

Offense

PSU better ▶

#12

#13

Defense

Even

#17

0.0 #64

Turnovers

PSU better ▶

+0.4 #45

70 plays #36

Pace

◀ SMU faster

66 plays #80

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When SMU has the ball

Even matchup

	SMU off	PSU def	Edge
Points / game	38.5 #6	16.4 #8	Even
Yards / play	6.36 #26	4.67 #10	Even
PPA / play	+0.22 #25	+0.03 #27	Even
Success rate	45% #49	38% #22	PSU

When PSU has the ball

Even matchup

	PSU off	SMU def	Edge
Points / game	33.6 #26	20.8 #28	Even
Yards / play	6.83 #7	4.65 #9	Even
PPA / play	+0.28 #12	−0.07 #4	Even
Success rate	52% #3	36% #10	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

SMU scoring against the PSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SMU scored	10.2 #6	11.5 #17	21.6 #6	6.1 #64	10.3 #7	16.4 #22
PSU allowed	4.8 #56	6.3 #37	11.1 #43	1.7 #2	3.6 #8	5.3 #3

PSU scoring against the SMU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
PSU scored	5.2 #81	12.6 #4	17.8 #28	7.5 #35	8.1 #44	15.5 #34
SMU allowed	4.8 #56	5.2 #15	9.9 #27	5.9 #76	4.5 #14	10.5 #39

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.