Fri, Dec 27, 2024, 8:00 PM ESTDirecTV Holiday Bowl · Neutral site
Closing spread
SYR -18.5
✓ WSU W
Total
57.5
▲ Over · 87 pts
Model before kickoff
SYR 40–24 WSU
✓ SYR (87%) won
Closing line · ESPN BET
SourceESPN BET closing line
OpenSYR -4.5
CloseSYR -18.5
Total61.5 → 57.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenSYR -4.5
14 → SYR
CloseSYR -18.5
14 pts toward Syracuse
Total
Open61.5
▼ 4
Close57.5
Down 4 since the open
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened SYR -4.5 · closed SYR -18.5 · moved 14 toward SYRmodel SYR -5
model SYR -5
Opened 61.5 · closed 57.5 · moved 4 downmodel 63.5
model 63.5
Openline modelKickoff
Line context
Crossed 7The team the line moved toward covered 62% (34 games since 2024)ⓘ
Closing line · ESPN BET
SourceESPN BET closing line
OpenSYR -4.5
CloseSYR -18.5
Total61.5 → 57.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Similar games
The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out
No recent game is a close match for
SYR as an 18.5-point neutral-site favorite against WSU. Try “Overall” or remove a filter under Customize.
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History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found
Signals
The data signal, and 3 trends and market moves behind it
Mixed signals on the spread
Slight Under trend Miss
Slight-or-stronger total leans went 509-553 (48%) in our 2023–26 backtest.
None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.
Syracuse 1-4 ATS as a favorite
Struggling to cover in the role they have in this game. · Backtest 2023–26: 221-216 (51%)
Market moved toward Syracuse
14 pts (SYR -4.5 → SYR -18.5), through the key number 7. · Backtest 2024–26: 446-443 (50%)
Total moved down 4
61.5 → 57.5. · Backtest 2024–26: 462-498 (48%)
Totals
Over/under before kickoff
Went over in Q3. Of 329 earlier overs in games with totals 53.5–61.5, 33% had cashed by the end of Q3.
When games like this go over ›Last 10 games
Before kickoff, this and last season
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7-3 70% | 5-5 50% | 6-4 60% | |
| 6-4 60% | 3-5 38% | 4-4 50% |
Matchup stats
Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams
Power rating this season
pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot
SYR−2.1 →+5.3▲ 7.4#43
WSU+2.5 →+0.6▼ 1.9#66
Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW16
Longer bar = better
#38
Offense
WSU better ▶#13
#103
Defense
Even#97
−0.1 #71
Turnovers
WSU better ▶+0.8 #17
78 plays #2
Pace
◀ SYR faster66 plays #77
Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense
| SYR off | WSU def | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points / game | 32.6 #35 | 28.1 #89 | SYR |
| Yards / play | 5.82 #68 | 6.04 #100 | SYR |
| PPA / play | +0.20 #33 | +0.13 #88 | SYR |
| Success rate | 47% #17 | 45% #109 | SYR |
| WSU off | SYR def | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points / game | 36.8 #8 | 28.7 #94 | WSU |
| Yards / play | 6.65 #12 | 6.16 #110 | WSU |
| PPA / play | +0.24 #20 | +0.19 #110 | WSU |
| Success rate | 49% #10 | 44% #97 | WSU |
Points by quarter and half
Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams
SYR scoring against the WSU defense
| Q1 | Q2 | 1H | Q3 | Q4 | 2H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
4.3 #101 | 10.9 #21 | 15.2 #48 | 8.9 #15 | 7.4 #58 | 16.3 #22 | |
6.2 #92 | 5.8 #23 | 12.0 #54 | 7.9 #116 | 7.7 #92 | 15.6 #112 |
WSU scoring against the SYR defense
| Q1 | Q2 | 1H | Q3 | Q4 | 2H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
9.6 #6 | 11.7 #15 | 21.3 #6 | 4.9 #93 | 9.9 #12 | 14.8 #48 | |
6.6 #98 | 8.3 #84 | 14.9 #93 | 5.3 #66 | 8.2 #102 | 13.5 #83 |
Game conditions
At kickoff
Home field
Neutral site
No home edge
Weather
59° · 3 mph
gusts 7 mph · at kickoff
Rest
SYR27d bye
WSU27d bye
Even
Tempo
Fast 145 plays
slowavg 134fast
Quarterback
WSU backup QB started
Not the usual starter
Schedules, links & other games
Previous and next games, standings, ESPN, and the rest of the week

