Miami @ Syracuse: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 14, 2024)

Sat, Nov 30, 2024, 3:30 PM ESTWeek 14 · at Syracuse · Conference game

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Miami

10-1 · Power #9

final

Final

Syracuse

8-3 · Power #43

▲ winner

Closing spread

MIA -12.5

✓ SYR W

Total

65.5

▲ Over · 80 pts

Model before kickoff

MIA 39–26 SYR

✗ MIA (82%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMIA -12

CloseMIA -12.5

Total67.5 → 65.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenMIA -12

0.5 → MIA

CloseMIA -12.5

0.5 pts toward Miami

Total

Open67.5

▼ 2

Close65.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened MIA -12 · closed MIA -12.5 · moved 0.5 toward MIAmodel MIA -14.5

model MIA -14.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 11.5–13.5 since 2023: won 80%, covered 41% (46 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMIA -12

CloseMIA -12.5

Total67.5 → 65.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like MIA as a 12.5-point road favorite at SYR, the favorite won 7, covered 4, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: SYR won 42–38 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 80 points went over 65.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 79%

Favorite covered

4 of 944%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 51%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 10 against an average line of 11; 64.2 points a game (usually 54.4). Of the 4 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	PITT @ SYR 2021 · Week 13 · close · similar situation & rest	-12.25	31–14	W	U58.25
Close	BOIS @ SJSU 2024 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & season form	-14.5	42–21	W	O62
Close	CIN @ ECU 2021 · Week 13 · close · similar season form & rest	-14.5	35–13	W	U56.5
Close	SMU @ MEM 2023 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & total	-9.5	38–34	L	O64.5
Close	TEX @ KU 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & total	-9	55–14	W	O63.5
Close	UNC @ GT 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & spread	-12	42–46	L	O65
Close	CIN @ TLSA 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & season form	-10	31–21	P	U59
Close	MIA @ GT 2024 · Week 11 · close · similar season form & team ratings	-9.5	23–28	L	U65
Close	ORE @ STAN 2021 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & season form	-8.5	24–31	L	U57.5
Close	USC @ CAL 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar spread	-10.5	50–49	L	O67.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MIA WWWLW	7-3	70%	3-2	7-3
SYR LWLWL	5-6	45%	2-4	4-2

Venue/role: MIA away, as favorite; SYR home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MIA OUOUU	7-3	70%	10-1
SYR UOOOO	6-5	55%	8-3

Went over in Q4. Of 64 earlier overs in games with totals 61.5–69.5, 20% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MIA	9-1 90%	6-3 67%	6-3 67%
SYR	7-3 70%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MIA+9.9 →+19.8▲ 9.9#8

SYR−2.1 →+4.1▲ 6.2#49

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW13

MIA

Longer bar = better

SYR

Offense

◀ MIA better

#45

#30

Defense

◀ MIA better

#95

+0.5 #36

Turnovers

◀ MIA better

−0.1 #80

71 plays #19

Pace

SYR faster ▶

79 plays #2

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MIA has the ball

Advantage: MIA offense

	MIA off	SYR def	Edge
Points / game	44.7 #1	27.8 #87	MIA
Yards / play	7.61 #1	6.02 #101	MIA
PPA / play	+0.37 #2	+0.17 #102	MIA
Success rate	52% #4	43% #91	MIA

When SYR has the ball

Even matchup

	SYR off	MIA def	Edge
Points / game	31.7 #43	22.3 #43	Even
Yards / play	5.74 #72	5.01 #31	MIA
PPA / play	+0.18 #40	+0.03 #31	Even
Success rate	47% #24	36% #13	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

MIA scoring against the SYR defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MIA scored	10.7 #3	9.0 #50	19.7 #14	10.5 #3	14.5 #1	25.0 #1
SYR allowed	5.9 #90	8.5 #87	14.4 #91	5.2 #56	8.0 #100	13.2 #77

SYR scoring against the MIA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SYR scored	4.6 #94	10.6 #27	15.3 #48	7.8 #30	7.5 #56	15.3 #41
MIA allowed	5.2 #72	8.4 #86	13.5 #79	4.4 #35	4.4 #15	8.7 #16

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.