Duke @ Wake Forest: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 14, 2024)

Sat, Nov 30, 2024, 12:00 PM ESTWeek 14 · at Wake Forest · Conference game

Weather at kickoff39°F9 mphgusts 21DryCold Over 50% of 115 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Duke

8-3 · Power #60

▲ winner

Final

Wake Forest

4-7 · Power #89

final

Closing spread

DUKE -3.5

✓ DUKE W

Total

53.5

▼ Under · 40 pts

Model before kickoff

DUKE 28–24 WAKE

✓ DUKE (61%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenDUKE -4.5

CloseDUKE -3.5

Total54.5 → 53.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenDUKE -4.5

1 → WAKE

CloseDUKE -3.5

1 pt toward Wake Forest

Total

Open54.5

▼ 1

Close53.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened DUKE -4.5 · closed DUKE -3.5 · moved 1 toward WAKEmodel DUKE -6

model DUKE -6

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 55%, covered 45% (133 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 53% (128 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenDUKE -4.5

CloseDUKE -3.5

Total54.5 → 53.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like DUKE as a 3.5-point road favorite at WAKE, the favorite won 5, covered 5, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: DUKE won 23–17; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 40 points stayed under 53.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 58%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 8.9 against an average line of 4; 59.3 points a game (usually 53.1). Of the 4 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	VT @ UVA 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & season form	-1.75	55–17	W	O53
Very close	WSU @ STAN 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & season form	-3	52–14	W	O48.5
Very close	DUKE @ UVA 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar situation & spread	-3.5	27–30	L	O47
Very close	CSU @ HAW 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar total & rest	-3	45–50	L	O53.75
Very close	OKST @ HOU 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & situation	-6.5	43–30	W	O57.5
Very close	TOL @ CMU 2021 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & spread	-5	23–26	L	U53
Very close	VT @ SYR 2024 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & total	-3.5	31–38	L	O53.5
Very close	TTU @ BYU 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3	14–27	L	U50
Very close	TLSA @ TULN 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & situation	-3	20–13	W	U55.5
Very close	ORST @ ASU 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & total	-7.5	31–7	W	U53.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
DUKE WWLWW	7-3	70%	3-1	2-2
WAKE WWLWL	5-5	50%	1-4	3-4

Venue/role: DUKE away, as favorite; WAKE home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
DUKE UOOUO	6-5	55%	8-3
WAKE UUOUU	4-6	40%	4-7

Stayed under: it needed 27 in the 4th quarter and got 13. 52% of games with totals 49.5–57.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
DUKE	7-3 70%	7-2 78%	6-4 60%
WAKE	3-7 30%	5-5 50%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

DUKE 60–40 WAKE (2 tied) DUKE leads · 102 games since 1921 · DUKE has won the last 4 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 2 2023	Wake Forest 21 @ Duke 24	DUKE -6.5	WAKE W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

DUKE+4.0 →+3.4▼ 0.6#52

WAKE−3.0 →−4.8▼ 1.8#89

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW13

DUKE

Longer bar = better

WAKE

#105

Offense

WAKE better ▶

#90

#24

Defense

◀ DUKE better

#118

+0.8 #20

Turnovers

◀ DUKE better

−0.5 #99

65 plays #81

Pace

WAKE faster ▶

70 plays #25

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When DUKE has the ball

Even matchup

	DUKE off	WAKE def	Edge
Points / game	27.2 #75	33.4 #117	DUKE
Yards / play	5.23 #113	6.04 #102	Even
PPA / play	+0.04 #112	+0.22 #117	Even
Success rate	38% #121	51% #136	Even

When WAKE has the ball

Advantage: DUKE defense

	WAKE off	DUKE def	Edge
Points / game	26.5 #84	22.6 #47	DUKE
Yards / play	5.33 #105	4.77 #16	DUKE
PPA / play	+0.08 #93	−0.07 #6	DUKE
Success rate	43% #77	38% #27	DUKE

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

DUKE scoring against the WAKE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
DUKE scored	8.4 #19	5.6 #121	14.0 #70	5.6 #74	5.8 #106	11.5 #102
WAKE allowed	6.4 #98	11.5 #126	17.9 #120	6.0 #80	9.5 #119	15.5 #110

WAKE scoring against the DUKE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WAKE scored	6.7 #48	7.7 #79	14.5 #61	6.9 #49	5.1 #119	12.0 #90
DUKE allowed	4.9 #62	5.7 #23	10.6 #37	5.1 #53	5.6 #47	10.7 #39

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.