Duke vs Ole Miss: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (TaxSlayer Gator Bowl, 2024)

Thu, Jan 2, 2025, 8:00 PM ESTTaxSlayer Gator Bowl · Neutral site

Weather at kickoff49°F3 mphDryWeather watch ›

Duke

9-3 · Power #60

final

Final

Ole Miss

9-3 · Power #3

▲ winner

Closing spread

MISS -14.5

✓ MISS W

Total

50.5

▲ Over · 72 pts

Model before kickoff

DUKE 18–33 MISS

✓ MISS (87%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMISS -12

CloseMISS -14.5

Total54.5 → 50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenMISS -12

2.5 → MISS

CloseMISS -14.5

2.5 pts toward Ole Miss

Total

Open54.5

▼ 4

Close50.5

Down 4 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened MISS -12 · closed MISS -14.5 · moved 2.5 toward MISSmodel MISS -20.5

model MISS -20.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 51% (123 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMISS -12

CloseMISS -14.5

Total54.5 → 50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 9 games most like MISS as a 14.5-point neutral-site favorite against DUKE, the favorite won 8, covered 5, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: MISS won 52–20; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 9 similar games. 72 points went over 50.5, as in 5 of 9.

Favorite won

8 of 989%

Normal range · usually 83%

Favorite covered

5 of 956%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

5 of 956%

Normal range · usually 48%

Only 9 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 19.3 against an average line of 14.4; 52.4 points a game (usually 54). Of the 3 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 9 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	SMU vs BC 2023 · Postseason · close · similar spread & total	-13.5	14–23	L	U48.75
Loose	LOU vs IU 2023 · Week 3 · loose · similar total & season form	-10	21–14	L	U50.5
Loose	ND vs GT 2024 · Week 8 · loose · similar season form	-14	31–13	W	U49.5
Loose	LSU vs PUR 2022 · Postseason · loose · similar situation & total	-15	63–7	W	O54.25
Loose	UGA vs LSU 2022 · Week 14 · loose · similar season form & spread	-17	50–30	W	O52
Loose	TEX vs OKST 2023 · Week 14 · loose · similar spread & season form	-14.5	49–21	W	O56.5
Loose	TA&M vs COLO 2021 · Week 2 · loose	-17	10–7	L	U50
Loose	ND vs NAVY 2024 · Week 9 · loose · similar spread	-14	51–14	W	O50.5
Loose	UGA vs FLA 2024 · Week 10 · loose · similar season form	-14.5	34–20	L	O52.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
DUKE WLWWW	8-3	73%	—	5-1
MISS LWWLL	7-5	58%	—	6-5

Venue/role: DUKE neutral, as underdog; MISS neutral, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
DUKE OOUOU	6-6	50%	9-3
MISS UOUUU	2-10	17%	9-3

Went over in Q4. Of 405 earlier overs in games with totals 46.5–54.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
DUKE	7-3 70%	7-2 78%	5-5 50%
MISS	7-3 70%	5-5 50%	1-9 10%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

DUKE+4.0 →+3.3▼ 0.7#56

MISS+12.8 →+21.9▲ 9.1#3

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW16

DUKE

Longer bar = better

MISS

#104

Offense

MISS better ▶

#17

Defense

Even

+0.7 #22

Turnovers

Even

+0.8 #14

65 plays #87

Pace

MISS faster ▶

72 plays #11

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When DUKE has the ball

Advantage: MISS defense

	DUKE off	MISS def	Edge
Points / game	26.8 #78	13.9 #3	MISS
Yards / play	5.25 #110	4.51 #4	MISS
PPA / play	+0.04 #111	−0.04 #7	MISS
Success rate	39% #117	35% #2	MISS

When MISS has the ball

Even matchup

	MISS off	DUKE def	Edge
Points / game	37.5 #5	22.2 #35	MISS
Yards / play	7.24 #2	4.73 #12	Even
PPA / play	+0.31 #5	−0.05 #5	Even
Success rate	47% #19	38% #16	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

DUKE scoring against the MISS defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
DUKE scored	7.7 #27	5.4 #121	13.1 #84	5.8 #69	6.4 #88	12.2 #87
MISS allowed	3.1 #13	5.3 #18	8.4 #13	2.4 #3	2.6 #1	5.0 #2

MISS scoring against the DUKE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MISS scored	11.1 #3	11.4 #16	22.5 #1	9.8 #6	4.9 #119	14.8 #49
DUKE allowed	4.5 #47	6.1 #30	10.6 #33	5.3 #63	5.2 #33	10.4 #37

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.