Notre Dame vs Georgia: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Allstate Sugar Bowl - Rescheduled from Jan 1 · CFP Quarterfinal, 2024)

Thu, Jan 2, 2025, 4:00 PM ESTAllstate Sugar Bowl - Rescheduled from Jan 1 · CFP Quarterfinal · Neutral site

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Notre Dame

12-1 · Power #4

▲ winner

Final

Georgia

11-2 · Power #8

final

Closing spread

ND -1.5

✓ ND W

Total

46.5

▼ Under · 33 pts

Model before kickoff

ND 26–25 UGA

✓ ND (55%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenND -1.5

CloseND -1.5

Total43.5 → 46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenND -1.5

no move

CloseND -1.5

No change since the open

Total

Open43.5

▲ 3

Close46.5

Up 3 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened ND -1.5 · unchangedmodel ND -2.5

model ND -2.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Neutral-site favorites of 0.5–3.5 since 2023: won 46%, covered 43% (41 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenND -1.5

CloseND -1.5

Total43.5 → 46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ND as a 1.5-point neutral-site favorite against UGA, the favorite won 6, covered 6, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: ND won 23–10; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 33 points stayed under 46.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 55%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 5.8 against an average line of 3.8; 51.4 points a game (usually 53.3). Of the 4 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	MICH vs ALA 2023 · Postseason · very close · similar spread & season form	-2	27–20	W	O46
Very close	TEX vs UGA 2024 · Week 15 · very close · similar spread & situation	-3	19–22	L	U51
Close	UGA vs ALA 2021 · Postseason · close · similar situation & spread	-3	33–18	W	U53
Close	ORE vs PSU 2024 · Week 15 · close · similar spread & situation	-3.5	45–37	W	O51.5
Close	OSU vs MIZ 2023 · Postseason · close · similar situation & spread	-4	3–14	L	U51
Close	UGA vs MICH 2021 · Postseason · close · similar total & rest	-7.5	34–11	W	U46
Loose	PSU vs MISS 2023 · Postseason · loose · similar situation & season form	-5.5	25–38	L	O52.5
Loose	SMU vs CLEM 2024 · Week 15 · loose · similar spread & season form	-2.5	31–34	L	O56.5
Loose	MICH vs WASH 2023 · Postseason · loose · similar situation & season form	-5	34–13	W	U55.5
Loose	PSU vs UTAH 2022 · Postseason · loose · similar spread & situation	-1.5	35–21	W	O55

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
ND WLWWW	10-3	77%	3-0	9-3
UGA LWLLW	4-9	31%	2-1	2-0

Venue/role: ND neutral, as favorite; UGA neutral, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ND OUOOU	7-6	54%	12-1
UGA UOOOU	6-7	46%	11-2

Stayed under: it needed 17 in the 4th quarter and got 3. 54% of games with totals 42.5–50.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ND	10-0 100%	8-2 80%	6-4 60%
UGA	8-2 80%	3-7 30%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ND+18.9 →+21.8▲ 2.9#4

UGA+24.2 →+19.7▼ 4.5#7

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW16

Longer bar = better

UGA

#11

Offense

◀ ND better

#34

Defense

◀ ND better

#34

+1.2 #3

Turnovers

◀ ND better

+0.1 #58

63 plays #110

Pace

UGA faster ▶

68 plays #62

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ND has the ball

Advantage: ND offense

	ND off	UGA def	Edge
Points / game	38.8 #3	20.4 #21	Even
Yards / play	6.65 #10	5.14 #35	ND
PPA / play	+0.27 #9	+0.07 #46	ND
Success rate	47% #22	39% #32	Even

When UGA has the ball

Advantage: ND defense

	UGA off	ND def	Edge
Points / game	33.2 #30	13.8 #2	ND
Yards / play	6.11 #43	4.53 #5	ND
PPA / play	+0.19 #37	−0.17 #1	ND
Success rate	47% #24	36% #9	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

ND scoring against the UGA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ND scored	8.3 #15	12.2 #5	20.5 #8	9.8 #7	8.5 #34	18.3 #4
UGA allowed	4.8 #60	5.3 #17	10.2 #25	4.5 #35	4.4 #11	8.8 #14

UGA scoring against the ND defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UGA scored	4.2 #102	8.5 #62	12.7 #91	9.0 #13	9.7 #14	18.7 #3
ND allowed	2.8 #9	3.6 #5	6.5 #2	2.2 #3	5.2 #34	7.4 #6

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.