Georgia vs Texas: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 15, 2024)

Sat, Dec 7, 2024, 4:00 PM ESTWeek 15 · Neutral site

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Georgia

10-2 · Power #8

▲ winner

Final

Texas

11-1 · Power #2

final

Closing spread

TEX -2.5

✓ UGA W

Total

50.5

▼ Under · 41 pts

Model before kickoff

UGA 25–28 TEX

✗ TEX (59%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenPick’em

CloseTEX -2.5

Total50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenPick’em

2.5 → TEX

CloseTEX -2.5

2.5 pts toward Texas

Total

Open50.5

no move

Close50.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened Pick’em · closed TEX -2.5 · moved 2.5 toward TEXmodel TEX -5

model TEX -5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 53% (114 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenPick’em

CloseTEX -2.5

Total50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TEX as a 2.5-point neutral-site favorite against UGA, the favorite won 6, covered 6, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: UGA won 22–19 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 41 points stayed under 50.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 4.1 against an average line of 4.1; 51.7 points a game (usually 53.3). Of the 3 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	MICH vs WASH 2023 · Postseason · very close · similar rest & season form	-5	34–13	W	U55.5
Very close	UGA vs ALA 2023 · Week 14 · very close · similar situation & rest	-5	24–27	L	U53.5
Close	UGA vs ALA 2021 · Postseason · close · similar total & situation	-3	33–18	W	U53
Close	MICH vs ALA 2023 · Postseason · close · similar season form & team ratings	-2	27–20	W	O46
Close	OSU vs MIZ 2023 · Postseason · close · similar total & situation	-4	3–14	L	U51
Close	UGA vs ALA 2021 · Week 14 · close · similar situation & rest	-6.25	24–41	L	O48.75
Close	PSU vs MISS 2023 · Postseason · close · similar season form & situation	-5.5	25–38	L	O52.5
Close	UTAH vs ORE 2021 · Week 14 · close · similar situation & rest	-3	38–10	W	U57.5
Loose	TA&M vs ARK 2023 · Week 5 · loose · similar season form & rest	-6.5	34–22	W	O54
Loose	OKST vs ND 2021 · Postseason · loose · similar spread & situation	-1	37–35	W	O45

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
UGA LLWLL	3-9	25%	1-1	1-0
TEX LWLLW	7-5	58%	1-0	7-5

Venue/role: UGA neutral, as underdog; TEX neutral, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UGA OUOOO	6-6	50%	10-2
TEX UOUUU	4-8	33%	11-1

Stayed under: it needed 32 in the 4th quarter and got 22. 55% of games with totals 46.5–54.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UGA	8-2 80%	2-8 20%	6-4 60%
TEX	9-1 90%	5-5 50%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

UGA 1–0 TEX UGA leads · 1 game since 2023 · UGA has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 19 2024	Georgia 30 @ Texas 15	TEX -4.5	UGA W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UGA+24.2 →+19.5▼ 4.7#8

TEX+19.1 →+24.1▲ 5.0#1

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW14

UGA

Longer bar = better

TEX

#30

Offense

Even

#27

#38

Defense

TEX better ▶

0.0 #66

Turnovers

TEX better ▶

+0.6 #30

68 plays #60

Pace

TEX faster ▶

71 plays #22

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UGA has the ball

Advantage: TEX defense

	UGA off	TEX def	Edge
Points / game	34.1 #25	11.7 #2	TEX
Yards / play	6.27 #34	4.00 #1	TEX
PPA / play	+0.20 #34	−0.16 #2	TEX
Success rate	47% #25	37% #18	Even

When TEX has the ball

Even matchup

	TEX off	UGA def	Edge
Points / game	34.8 #21	20.5 #27	Even
Yards / play	6.37 #28	5.13 #38	Even
PPA / play	+0.20 #32	+0.07 #49	Even
Success rate	47% #28	39% #39	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

UGA scoring against the TEX defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UGA scored	4.6 #98	8.9 #56	13.5 #79	8.9 #15	10.3 #8	19.2 #4
TEX allowed	1.4 #3	3.8 #5	5.2 #1	3.4 #12	3.1 #4	6.5 #4

TEX scoring against the UGA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TEX scored	8.8 #13	12.3 #10	21.1 #9	6.8 #57	6.9 #73	13.8 #61
UGA allowed	5.0 #66	5.5 #24	10.5 #35	4.8 #46	3.9 #9	8.8 #14

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.