Ohio vs Miami (OH): Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 15, 2024)

Sat, Dec 7, 2024, 12:00 PM ESTWeek 15 · Neutral site

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Ohio

9-3 · Power #65

▲ winner

Final

Miami (OH)

8-4 · Power #73

final

Closing spread

M-OH -2.5

✓ OHIO W

Total

43.5

▼ Under · 41 pts

Model before kickoff

OHIO 21–23 M-OH

✗ M-OH (56%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenM-OH -1.5

CloseM-OH -2.5

Total45.5 → 43.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenM-OH -1.5

1 → M-OH

CloseM-OH -2.5

1 pt toward Miami (OH)

Total

Open45.5

▼ 2

Close43.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened M-OH -1.5 · closed M-OH -2.5 · moved 1 toward M-OHmodel M-OH -0.5

model M-OH -0.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 51% (120 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenM-OH -1.5

CloseM-OH -2.5

Total45.5 → 43.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like M-OH as a 2.5-point neutral-site favorite against OHIO, the favorite won 3, covered 0, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: OHIO won 38–3 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 8 of the 10 similar games. 41 points stayed under 43.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

0 of 80%

Below normal · usually 47%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 49%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: underdog by 5.5 against an average line of 3.7; 38.3 points a game (usually 53.3). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	AFA vs ARMY 2021 · Week 10 · close · similar season form & spread	-2.5	14–21	L	U37.5
Close	TOL vs M-OH 2023 · Week 14 · close · similar situation & total	-7	14–23	L	U43.5
Close	PITT vs SYR 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & spread	-3	13–28	L	O37.75
Close	TOL vs LIB 2022 · Postseason · close · similar spread & team ratings	-3.5	21–19	L	U51
Close	UK vs IOWA 2021 · Postseason · close · similar total & spread	-3	20–17	P	U43.5
Close	NCST vs MD 2022 · Postseason · close · similar total & season form	-2	12–16	L	U45.25
Close	NAVY vs ARMY 2022 · Week 15 · close · similar spread & season form	-2.5	17–20	L	O32
Close	AUB vs MD 2023 · Postseason · close · similar spread & season form	-4	13–31	L	U48.5
Close	TROY vs DUKE 2023 · Postseason · close · similar season form	-6.75	10–17	L	U44.25
Loose	OHIO vs WYO 2022 · Postseason · loose	-3	30–27	P	O43

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
OHIO WWWWW	8-4	67%	—	2-2
M-OH WLLWW	6-6	50%	—	4-3

Venue/role: OHIO neutral, as underdog; M-OH neutral, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
OHIO OUUUO	6-6	50%	9-3
M-OH OUUUO	5-7	42%	8-4

Stayed under: it needed 10 in the 4th quarter and got 7. 56% of games with totals 39.5–47.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
OHIO	8-2 80%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%
M-OH	8-2 80%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

OHIO 0–2 M-OH M-OH leads · 2 games since 2023 · M-OH has won the last 2 meetings

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 19 2024	Ohio 20 @ Miami (OH) 30	M-OH -3.5	M-OH W
Oct 28 2023	Miami (OH) 30 @ Ohio 16	OHIO -7.5	M-OH W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

OHIO−3.6 →−1.9▲ 1.7#73

M-OH−4.7 →−1.4▲ 3.3#69

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW14

OHIO

Longer bar = better

M-OH

#52

Offense

◀ OHIO better

#80

#24

Defense

Even

#29

−0.3 #85

Turnovers

M-OH better ▶

+0.3 #46

64 plays #97

Pace

◀ OHIO faster

59 plays #132

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When OHIO has the ball

Advantage: M-OH defense

	OHIO off	M-OH def	Edge
Points / game	28.5 #64	17.3 #12	M-OH
Yards / play	6.13 #47	4.60 #8	M-OH
PPA / play	+0.17 #45	+0.03 #30	Even
Success rate	44% #50	41% #67	Even

When M-OH has the ball

Advantage: OHIO defense

	M-OH off	OHIO def	Edge
Points / game	24.3 #98	18.7 #17	OHIO
Yards / play	6.17 #42	4.91 #22	Even
PPA / play	+0.11 #84	+0.04 #35	OHIO
Success rate	41% #94	37% #22	OHIO

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

OHIO scoring against the M-OH defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
OHIO scored	4.4 #100	8.7 #60	13.1 #83	6.7 #57	8.8 #28	15.4 #35
M-OH allowed	4.6 #52	3.7 #4	8.3 #9	3.8 #20	5.3 #35	9.1 #18

M-OH scoring against the OHIO defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
M-OH scored	4.8 #95	7.5 #83	12.3 #95	4.9 #95	6.8 #75	11.8 #92
OHIO allowed	1.0 #1	7.9 #73	8.9 #18	5.5 #66	4.3 #11	9.8 #30

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.