Miami (OH) vs Colorado State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Snoop Dogg Arizona Bowl, 2024)

Sat, Dec 28, 2024, 4:30 PM ESTSnoop Dogg Arizona Bowl · Neutral site

Weather at kickoff69°F3 mphgusts 10DryWeather watch ›

Miami (OH)

8-5 · Power #73

▲ winner

Final

Colorado State

8-4 · Power #100

final

Closing spread

M-OH -1.5

✓ M-OH W

Total

42.5

▲ Over · 60 pts

Model before kickoff

M-OH 23–22 CSU

✓ M-OH (55%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenM-OH -2.5

CloseM-OH -1.5

Total42.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenM-OH -2.5

1 → CSU

CloseM-OH -1.5

1 pt toward Colorado State

Total

Open42.5

no move

Close42.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened M-OH -2.5 · closed M-OH -1.5 · moved 1 toward CSUmodel M-OH -3.5

model M-OH -3.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 50% (142 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenM-OH -2.5

CloseM-OH -1.5

Total42.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like M-OH as a 1.5-point neutral-site favorite against CSU, the favorite won 4, covered 2, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: M-OH won 43–17; the favorite covered, as in 2 of the 10 similar games. 60 points went over 42.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 55%

Favorite covered

2 of 922%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 49%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: underdog by 5 against an average line of 4; 43.2 points a game (usually 53.3). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	AFA vs ARMY 2021 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	14–21	L	U37.5
Very close	M-OH vs OHIO 2024 · Week 15 · very close · similar total & team ratings	-2.5	3–38	L	U44
Close	SJSU vs EMU 2022 · Postseason · close · similar situation & rest	-3.5	27–41	L	O54
Close	NAVY vs ARMY 2022 · Week 15 · close · similar rest & season form	-2.5	17–20	L	O32
Close	USM vs RICE 2022 · Postseason · close · similar situation & rest	-6.5	38–24	W	O45.5
Close	MINN vs WVU 2021 · Postseason · close · similar season form & total	-5.75	18–6	W	U44.75
Close	TOL vs LIB 2022 · Postseason · close · similar rest & situation	-3.5	21–19	L	U51
Close	TROY vs DUKE 2023 · Postseason · close · similar rest & situation	-6.75	10–17	L	U44.25
Close	PITT vs SYR 2023 · Week 11 · close	-3	13–28	L	O37.75
Close	OHIO vs WYO 2022 · Postseason · close · similar situation & total	-3	30–27	P	O43

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
M-OH LLWWL	6-7	46%	0-1	4-4
CSU WWWLL	7-5	58%	—	1-3

Venue/role: M-OH neutral, as favorite; CSU neutral, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
M-OH UUUOU	5-8	38%	8-5
CSU UOUOO	6-6	50%	8-4

Went over in Q4. Of 194 earlier overs in games with totals 38.5–46.5, 33% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
M-OH	8-2 80%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%
CSU	7-3 70%	7-3 70%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

M-OH−4.7 →−3.2▲ 1.5#80

CSU−8.3 →−6.3▲ 2.0#96

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW16

M-OH

Longer bar = better

CSU

#86

Offense

Even

#80

#40

Defense

◀ M-OH better

#68

+0.2 #51

Turnovers

Even

+0.3 #50

58 plays #134

Pace

CSU faster ▶

65 plays #93

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When M-OH has the ball

Even matchup

	M-OH off	CSU def	Edge
Points / game	22.6 #109	24.3 #63	CSU
Yards / play	6.03 #50	5.72 #81	M-OH
PPA / play	+0.10 #86	+0.06 #44	CSU
Success rate	41% #98	43% #83	Even

When CSU has the ball

Advantage: M-OH defense

	CSU off	M-OH def	Edge
Points / game	25.0 #95	18.9 #16	M-OH
Yards / play	5.88 #63	4.75 #13	M-OH
PPA / play	+0.11 #79	+0.06 #40	M-OH
Success rate	42% #83	43% #89	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

M-OH scoring against the CSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
M-OH scored	4.6 #98	6.9 #94	11.5 #102	4.5 #103	6.3 #89	10.8 #103
CSU allowed	3.4 #18	7.7 #73	11.1 #42	5.5 #69	6.5 #61	12.0 #61

CSU scoring against the M-OH defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CSU scored	5.8 #67	6.8 #98	12.5 #93	4.7 #99	7.3 #61	11.9 #91
M-OH allowed	4.8 #58	4.5 #10	9.2 #17	4.2 #25	5.5 #36	9.7 #28

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.