South Florida vs San José State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Hawaiʻi Bowl, 2024)

Tue, Dec 24, 2024, 8:00 PM ESTHawaiʻi Bowl · Neutral site

Weather at kickoff81°F11 mphgusts 25DryWindy Over 48% of 274 games since 2023Weather watch ›

South Florida

6-6 · Power #91

▲ winner

Final

San José State

7-5 · Power #86

final

Closing spread

USF -0.5

✓ USF W

Total

64.5

▲ Over · 80 pts

Model before kickoff

USF 28–28 SJSU

✓ USF (51%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenSJSU -2.5

CloseUSF -0.5

Total62.5 → 64.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenSJSU -2.5

3 → USF

CloseUSF -0.5

3 pts toward South Florida

Total

Open62.5

▲ 2

Close64.5

Up 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened SJSU -2.5 · closed USF -0.5 · moved 3 toward USFmodel SJSU -0.5

model SJSU -0.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 53% (117 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenSJSU -2.5

CloseUSF -0.5

Total62.5 → 64.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like USF as a 0.5-point neutral-site favorite against SJSU, the favorite won 4, covered 3, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: USF won 41–39; the favorite covered, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 80 points went over 64.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 54%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 1.3 against an average line of 3.5; 56.7 points a game (usually 53). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	JXST vs UL 2023 · Postseason · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-3.5	34–31	L	O58
Close	GASO vs BUFF 2022 · Postseason · close · similar season form & situation	-6	21–23	L	U66.5
Close	UTSA vs TROY 2022 · Postseason · close · similar rest & situation	-3	12–18	L	U56.5
Close	NMSU vs FRES 2023 · Postseason · close · similar rest & situation	-3	10–37	L	U53
Close	WKU vs APP 2021 · Postseason · close · similar situation & rest	-1	59–38	W	O67.75
Close	ARST vs NIU 2023 · Postseason · close · similar rest & situation	-2.5	19–21	L	U53.75
Close	WYO vs KENT 2021 · Postseason · close · similar rest & season form	-3	52–38	W	O60.5
Close	DUKE vs UCF 2022 · Postseason · close · similar situation & total	-3.25	30–13	W	U62.75
Loose	UCF vs GT 2023 · Postseason · loose · similar rest & situation	-6.25	17–30	L	U66
Loose	KENT vs NIU 2021 · Week 14 · loose · similar season form	-3.75	23–41	L	U75.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
USF WLWWL	4-6	40%	—	2-2
SJSU LWLLW	5-6	45%	—	2-4

Venue/role: USF neutral, as favorite; SJSU neutral, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
USF OUOOO	6-4	60%	6-6
SJSU UUOUO	5-6	45%	7-5

Went over in OT. Of 89 earlier overs in games with totals 60.5–68.5, 24% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
USF	5-5 50%	3-6 33%	6-3 67%
SJSU	5-5 50%	3-6 33%	4-5 44%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

USF−4.4 →−5.1▼ 0.7#90

SJSU−2.2 →−4.7▼ 2.5#86

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW16

USF

Longer bar = better

SJSU

#78

Offense

SJSU better ▶

#59

#72

Defense

SJSU better ▶

#52

+0.6 #29

Turnovers

◀ USF better

0.0 #61

72 plays #12

Pace

◀ USF faster

65 plays #85

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When USF has the ball

Advantage: SJSU defense

	USF off	SJSU def	Edge
Points / game	31.4 #43	26.4 #80	USF
Yards / play	5.80 #72	5.12 #36	SJSU
PPA / play	+0.11 #81	+0.03 #27	SJSU
Success rate	39% #117	41% #64	SJSU

When SJSU has the ball

Even matchup

	SJSU off	USF def	Edge
Points / game	27.5 #72	29.0 #98	SJSU
Yards / play	6.24 #36	5.91 #90	SJSU
PPA / play	+0.12 #73	+0.10 #70	Even
Success rate	44% #55	39% #30	USF

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

USF scoring against the SJSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
USF scored	6.8 #44	7.1 #91	13.9 #74	10.3 #3	7.3 #60	17.5 #13
SJSU allowed	4.5 #47	8.0 #76	12.5 #66	6.3 #92	6.9 #71	13.3 #79

SJSU scoring against the USF defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SJSU scored	5.5 #73	9.1 #51	14.6 #56	5.2 #87	7.3 #60	12.4 #78
USF allowed	9.3 #130	6.8 #54	16.1 #110	3.8 #16	9.1 #113	12.9 #73

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.