South Florida @ Rice: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 14, 2024)

Sat, Nov 30, 2024, 2:00 PM ESTWeek 14 · at Rice · Conference game

Weather at kickoff58°F5 mphgusts 14DryWeather watch ›

South Florida

6-5 · Power #91

final

Final

Rice

3-8 · Power #104

▲ winner

Closing spread

USF -5.5

✓ RICE W

Total

53.5

▲ Over · 63 pts

Model before kickoff

USF 28–23 RICE

✗ USF (64%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUSF -4

CloseUSF -5.5

Total52.5 → 53.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenUSF -4

1.5 → USF

CloseUSF -5.5

1.5 pts toward South Florida

Total

Open52.5

▲ 1

Close53.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened USF -4 · closed USF -5.5 · moved 1.5 toward USFmodel USF -2.5

model USF -2.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 4.5–6.5 since 2023: won 61%, covered 51% (88 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 52% (115 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUSF -4

CloseUSF -5.5

Total52.5 → 53.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like USF as a 5.5-point road favorite at RICE, the favorite won 2, covered 2, and 6 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: RICE won 35–28 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 8 of the 10 similar games. 63 points went over 53.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

2 of 1020%

Below normal · usually 62%

Favorite covered

2 of 1020%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 48%

Wins below normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: underdog by 0.3 against an average line of 3.8; 59.1 points a game (usually 53.2). Of the 3 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	OHIO @ M-OH 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar total & situation	-2.5	37–21	W	O52
Very close	KENT @ M-OH 2022 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & spread	-5	24–27	L	U56.5
Very close	CSU @ HAW 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar situation & rest	-3	45–50	L	O53.75
Very close	CMU @ M-OH 2021 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & season form	-1.75	17–28	L	U56
Very close	NIU @ CMU 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar situation & spread	-4.75	31–37	L	O48
Very close	WMU @ CMU 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & situation	-6	14–16	L	U56
Very close	MTSU @ SHSU 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & situation	-3.5	20–23	L	U50
Very close	EMU @ BGSU 2021 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & spread	-4	55–24	W	O49.5
Very close	GASO @ MRSH 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & rest	-1.5	33–38	L	O56.5
Very close	FRES @ SDSU 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & rest	-5.5	18–33	L	O47.25

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
USF LWLWW	4-5	44%	3-1	2-1
RICE WLWWL	5-6	45%	3-2	4-3

Venue/role: USF away, as favorite; RICE home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
USF OOUOO	5-4	56%	6-5
RICE UUUUO	4-7	36%	3-8

Went over in Q4. Of 350 earlier overs in games with totals 49.5–57.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
USF	5-5 50%	4-5 44%	5-4 56%
RICE	3-7 30%	5-5 50%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

USF 1–0 RICE USF leads · 1 game since 2023 · USF has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 23 2023	Rice 29 @ South Florida 42	RICE -2.5	USF W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

USF−4.4 →−4.5▼ 0.1#86

RICE−5.5 →−9.5▼ 4.0#104

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW13

USF

Longer bar = better

RICE

#75

Offense

◀ USF better

#122

#75

Defense

RICE better ▶

#43

+0.7 #21

Turnovers

◀ USF better

−1.0 #131

72 plays #14

Pace

◀ USF faster

63 plays #111

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When USF has the ball

Advantage: RICE defense

	USF off	RICE def	Edge
Points / game	31.7 #42	25.2 #71	USF
Yards / play	5.78 #66	4.95 #26	RICE
PPA / play	+0.11 #83	+0.08 #61	RICE
Success rate	39% #109	36% #12	RICE

When RICE has the ball

Advantage: USF defense

	RICE off	USF def	Edge
Points / game	21.0 #118	28.5 #95	USF
Yards / play	5.29 #111	5.82 #92	Even
PPA / play	−0.04 #130	+0.10 #69	USF
Success rate	35% #130	39% #42	USF

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

USF scoring against the RICE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
USF scored	6.8 #48	7.7 #80	14.5 #61	10.5 #3	6.6 #79	17.2 #15
RICE allowed	5.0 #64	8.0 #77	13.0 #74	4.5 #38	7.7 #94	12.2 #64

RICE scoring against the USF defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
RICE scored	4.6 #92	6.1 #113	10.7 #111	5.0 #93	5.3 #114	10.3 #113
USF allowed	8.5 #124	6.5 #49	15.1 #99	3.5 #15	9.9 #124	13.4 #81

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.