UTSA @ Army: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 14, 2024)

Sat, Nov 30, 2024, 12:00 PM ESTWeek 14 · at Army · Conference game

Weather at kickoff35°F12 mphgusts 28DryWindy Over 48% of 274 games since 2023Weather watch ›

UTSA

6-5 · Power #82

final

Final

Army

9-1 · Power #52

▲ winner

Closing spread

ARMY -6.5

✓ UTSA W

Total

53.5

▼ Under · 53 pts

Model before kickoff

UTSA 21–29 ARMY

✓ ARMY (71%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenARMY -7.5

CloseARMY -6.5

Total55.5 → 53.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenARMY -7.5

1 → UTSA

CloseARMY -6.5

1 pt toward UTSA

Total

Open55.5

▼ 2

Close53.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened ARMY -7.5 · closed ARMY -6.5 · moved 1 toward UTSAmodel ARMY -12

model ARMY -12

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 5.5–7.5 since 2023: won 69%, covered 56% (145 games)ⓘ

Crossed 7The team the line moved toward covered 62% (26 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenARMY -7.5

CloseARMY -6.5

Total55.5 → 53.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ARMY as a 6.5-point home favorite against UTSA, the favorite won 9, covered 8, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: ARMY won 29–24; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 2 of the 10 similar games. 53 points stayed under 53.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 67%

Favorite covered

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 13.8 against an average line of 7.3; 56.4 points a game (usually 53.7). Of the 2 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	HOU vs MEM 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar season form & team ratings	-9.5	31–13	W	U59.25
Very close	USA vs GASO 2024 · Week 10 · very close · similar situation & rest	-5.5	30–34	L	O60
Very close	JMU vs GAST 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar situation & rest	-10	42–40	L	O52
Very close	NCST vs LOU 2021 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & rest	-6	28–13	W	U57
Very close	TULN vs MEM 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & season form	-7	38–28	W	O55.5
Very close	KSU vs TTU 2022 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & total	-7.5	37–28	W	O56
Very close	TROY vs APP 2023 · Week 14 · very close · similar spread & rest	-5.5	49–23	W	O52.5
Very close	ARMY vs M-OH 2021 · Week 4 · very close · similar rest & season form	-7.5	23–10	W	U48.75
Very close	JMU vs CCU 2024 · Week 7 · very close · similar team ratings & season form	-7	39–7	W	U59
Very close	ISU vs CIN 2024 · Week 12 · very close · similar situation & rest	-7	34–17	W	U52.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UTSA WLWWW	5-5	50%	0-5	1-3
ARMY WLLWL	7-3	70%	3-2	6-2

Venue/role: UTSA away, as underdog; ARMY home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UTSA OOOOO	8-2	80%	6-5
ARMY UOUUO	6-4	60%	9-1

Stayed under: it needed 21 in the 4th quarter and got 20. 52% of games with totals 49.5–57.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UTSA	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	8-2 80%
ARMY	9-1 90%	7-3 70%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

UTSA 0–1 ARMY ARMY leads · 1 game since 2023 · ARMY has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 15 2023	Army 37 @ UTSA 29	UTSA -7	ARMY W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UTSA+1.0 →−4.6▼ 5.6#87

ARMY−16.8 →+3.3▲ 20.1#54

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW13

UTSA

Longer bar = better

ARMY

#76

Offense

ARMY better ▶

#15

#59

Defense

ARMY better ▶

#40

+0.2 #56

Turnovers

ARMY better ▶

+1.0 #8

80 plays #1

Pace

◀ UTSA faster

62 plays #119

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UTSA has the ball

Advantage: ARMY defense

	UTSA off	ARMY def	Edge
Points / game	33.0 #32	14.2 #6	ARMY
Yards / play	5.73 #75	5.15 #41	ARMY
PPA / play	+0.10 #86	+0.01 #20	ARMY
Success rate	39% #111	43% #92	Even

When ARMY has the ball

Advantage: ARMY offense

	ARMY off	UTSA def	Edge
Points / game	33.1 #31	31.5 #111	ARMY
Yards / play	6.45 #25	5.74 #84	ARMY
PPA / play	+0.35 #3	+0.04 #38	ARMY
Success rate	54% #1	34% #1	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

UTSA scoring against the ARMY defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UTSA scored	8.1 #22	11.5 #16	19.6 #16	4.9 #96	8.5 #37	13.4 #69
ARMY allowed	3.4 #22	2.4 #1	5.8 #3	3.4 #16	5.0 #31	8.4 #15

ARMY scoring against the UTSA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ARMY scored	7.9 #28	9.7 #41	17.6 #33	8.2 #24	7.3 #59	15.5 #38
UTSA allowed	4.9 #62	10.3 #118	15.2 #101	8.7 #123	7.6 #92	16.4 #117

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.