UAB @ Charlotte: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 14, 2024)

Sat, Nov 30, 2024, 3:30 PM ESTWeek 14 · at Charlotte · Conference game

Weather at kickoff45°F6 mphgusts 16DryWeather watch ›

UAB

3-8 · Power #116

final

Final

Charlotte

4-7 · Power #119

▲ winner

Closing spread

CLT -1.5

✓ CLT W

Total

59.5

▼ Under · 56 pts

Model before kickoff

UAB 28–30 CLT

✓ CLT (55%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenCLT -3

CloseCLT -1.5

Total57.5 → 59.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenCLT -3

1.5 → UAB

CloseCLT -1.5

1.5 pts toward UAB

Total

Open57.5

▲ 2

Close59.5

Up 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened CLT -3 · closed CLT -1.5 · moved 1.5 toward UABmodel CLT -3

model CLT -3

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 0.5–2.5 since 2023: won 49%, covered 46% (132 games)ⓘ

Moved off 3The team the line moved toward covered 54% (28 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenCLT -3

CloseCLT -1.5

Total57.5 → 59.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like CLT as a 1.5-point home favorite against UAB, the favorite won 4, covered 3, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: CLT won 29–27; the favorite covered, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 56 points stayed under 59.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 55%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 0.6 against an average line of 2.6; 53.2 points a game (usually 53.3). Of the 3 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	WMU vs OHIO 2022 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-2	14–33	L	U61.5
Very close	GAST vs ARST 2024 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-2.5	20–27	L	U59.5
Very close	WMU vs CMU 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & total	-3.5	38–28	W	O57.5
Very close	USM vs ULM 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & situation	-3	24–7	W	U56.5
Very close	TLSA vs TEM 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & season form	-3	48–26	W	O55
Very close	ARST vs TXST 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & season form	-2	22–24	L	U62.25
Very close	RICE vs UNT 2021 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & spread	-1.5	24–30	L	U55
Very close	CCU vs GASO 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & rest	-2	6–26	L	U59.5
Very close	BUFF vs BALL 2024 · Week 12 · very close · similar situation & total	-3.5	51–48	L	O55.5
Very close	BALL vs EMU 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	16–20	L	U57.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UAB WWLLW	4-6	40%	1-3	2-5
CLT LWLLW	5-4	56%	1-2	1-1

Venue/role: UAB away, as underdog; CLT home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UAB OOOOO	7-3	70%	3-8
CLT OOUOO	7-2	78%	4-7

Stayed under: it needed 27 in the 4th quarter and got 23. 47% of games with totals 55.5–63.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UAB	2-8 20%	3-6 33%	7-2 78%
CLT	4-6 40%	5-4 56%	7-2 78%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UAB−6.4 →−12.1▼ 5.7#115

CLT−9.5 →−12.2▼ 2.7#116

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW13

UAB

Longer bar = better

CLT

#82

Offense

◀ UAB better

#110

#107

Defense

Even

#118

−1.1 #134

Turnovers

Even

−0.9 #128

69 plays #41

Pace

◀ UAB faster

62 plays #120

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UAB has the ball

Advantage: UAB offense

	UAB off	CLT def	Edge
Points / game	26.1 #87	35.8 #125	UAB
Yards / play	5.62 #82	6.36 #119	UAB
PPA / play	+0.05 #110	+0.23 #121	Even
Success rate	44% #50	45% #107	UAB

When CLT has the ball

Even matchup

	CLT off	UAB def	Edge
Points / game	23.2 #107	34.7 #122	Even
Yards / play	5.48 #92	5.73 #82	Even
PPA / play	+0.02 #116	+0.20 #112	Even
Success rate	37% #123	46% #113	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

UAB scoring against the CLT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UAB scored	7.0 #42	8.9 #53	15.9 #44	3.6 #122	6.5 #82	10.2 #114
CLT allowed	6.4 #99	9.7 #106	16.1 #111	10.8 #133	8.9 #112	19.7 #132

CLT scoring against the UAB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CLT scored	3.7 #114	6.0 #113	9.7 #119	4.6 #100	8.8 #26	13.5 #70
UAB allowed	7.6 #118	8.5 #87	16.1 #111	7.9 #116	10.7 #128	18.6 #129

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.