Rice @ UAB: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 13, 2024)

Sat, Nov 23, 2024, 2:00 PM ESTWeek 13 · at UAB · Conference game

Weather at kickoff55°F4 mphgusts 13DryWeather watch ›

Rice

3-7 · Power #104

final

Final

UAB

2-8 · Power #116

▲ winner

Closing spread

RICE -6.5

✓ UAB W

Total

52.5

▲ Over · 54 pts

Model before kickoff

RICE 30–24 UAB

✗ RICE (66%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenRICE -7

CloseRICE -6.5

Total50.5 → 52.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenRICE -7

0.5 → UAB

CloseRICE -6.5

0.5 pts toward UAB

Total

Open50.5

▲ 2

Close52.5

Up 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened RICE -7 · closed RICE -6.5 · moved 0.5 toward UABmodel RICE -4

model RICE -4

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 5.5–7.5 since 2023: won 68%, covered 58% (103 games)ⓘ

Moved off 7The team the line moved toward covered 67% (21 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenRICE -7

CloseRICE -6.5

Total50.5 → 52.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like RICE as a 6.5-point road favorite at UAB, the favorite won 4, covered 1, and 8 went over the total.

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This game: UAB won 40–14 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 9 of the 10 similar games. 54 points went over 52.5, as in 8 of 10.

Favorite won

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 66%

Favorite covered

1 of 1010%

Below normal · usually 50%

Went over

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 49%

Covers below normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: underdog by 2.5 against an average line of 5.3; 61.1 points a game (usually 53.7). Of the 5 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	M-OH @ OHIO 2021 · Week 10 · very close · similar situation & spread	-7	33–35	L	O54.5
Very close	CSU @ HAW 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & season form	-5.5	24–27	L	U53.75
Very close	NIU @ CMU 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar situation & season form	-4.75	31–37	L	O48
Very close	CMU @ OHIO 2021 · Week 6 · very close · similar spread & situation	-5	30–27	L	U57.5
Very close	SDSU @ HAW 2023 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & team ratings	-6	41–34	W	O52
Close	OHIO @ CMU 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar total & situation	-3	27–25	L	O50.5
Close	EMU @ AKR 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar situation & season form	-6.25	34–28	L	O57.25
Close	CCU @ TROY 2024 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & situation	-4	24–38	L	O51.5
Close	NAVY @ TEM 2023 · Week 10 · close · similar spread & situation	-7	18–32	L	O46
Close	LT @ RICE 2021 · Week 13 · close · similar situation & season form	-4	31–35	L	O52.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
RICE WWLWW	5-5	50%	2-3	1-2
UAB LWWLL	3-6	33%	2-3	1-5

Venue/role: RICE away, as favorite; UAB home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
RICE OUUUU	3-7	30%	3-7
UAB UOOOO	6-3	67%	2-8

Went over in Q4. Of 350 earlier overs in games with totals 48.5–56.5, 35% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
RICE	3-7 30%	5-5 50%	3-7 30%
UAB	2-8 20%	3-6 33%	6-3 67%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

RICE−5.5 →−7.8▼ 2.3#102

UAB−6.4 →−13.8▼ 7.4#121

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW12

RICE

Longer bar = better

UAB

#117

Offense

UAB better ▶

#87

#33

Defense

◀ RICE better

#117

−0.8 #122

Turnovers

◀ RICE better

−1.5 #136

62 plays #117

Pace

UAB faster ▶

70 plays #25

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When RICE has the ball

Even matchup

	RICE off	UAB def	Edge
Points / game	21.7 #114	36.8 #128	Even
Yards / play	5.37 #100	5.86 #94	Even
PPA / play	−0.01 #122	+0.25 #125	Even
Success rate	35% #131	47% #122	Even

When UAB has the ball

Advantage: RICE defense

	UAB off	RICE def	Edge
Points / game	24.7 #95	23.7 #62	RICE
Yards / play	5.56 #83	4.83 #21	RICE
PPA / play	+0.02 #116	+0.06 #46	RICE
Success rate	44% #55	35% #4	RICE

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

RICE scoring against the UAB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
RICE scored	3.7 #114	6.7 #106	10.4 #114	5.5 #76	5.8 #101	11.3 #99
UAB allowed	7.0 #108	9.3 #99	16.3 #109	8.7 #122	11.8 #133	20.5 #134

UAB scoring against the RICE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UAB scored	6.3 #54	8.5 #59	14.8 #59	4.0 #113	5.9 #98	9.9 #114
RICE allowed	4.1 #44	7.5 #68	11.6 #54	4.9 #49	7.2 #84	12.1 #65

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.