Rice @ Memphis: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 11, 2024)

Fri, Nov 8, 2024, 9:00 PM ESTWeek 11 · at Memphis · Conference game

Weather at kickoff63°F9 mphgusts 15DryWeather watch ›

Rice

3-6 · Power #104

final

Final

Memphis

7-2 · Power #56

▲ winner

Closing spread

MEM -7.5

✓ RICE W

Total

50.5

▼ Under · 47 pts

Model before kickoff

RICE 21–29 MEM

✓ MEM (73%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMEM -10.5

CloseMEM -7.5

Total52.5 → 50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenMEM -10.5

3 → RICE

CloseMEM -7.5

3 pts toward Rice

Total

Open52.5

▼ 2

Close50.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened MEM -10.5 · closed MEM -7.5 · moved 3 toward RICEmodel MEM -13.5

model MEM -13.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 6.5–8.5 since 2023: won 70%, covered 55% (105 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 45% (71 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMEM -10.5

CloseMEM -7.5

Total52.5 → 50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like MEM as a 7.5-point home favorite against RICE, the favorite won 8, covered 5, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: MEM won 27–20; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 47 points stayed under 50.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 70%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 8.4 against an average line of 8.7; 50.2 points a game (usually 53.9). Of the 2 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	TTU vs HOU 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar total & rest	-8.5	49–28	W	O51.5
Very close	UL vs USM 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & spread	-8.5	31–34	L	O52.5
Very close	UVA vs ODU 2022 · Week 3 · very close · similar spread & rest	-8.25	16–14	L	U52.5
Very close	OHIO vs BGSU 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & total	-5.5	38–14	W	U52.5
Close	ORST vs CAL 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar situation & total	-11.5	38–10	W	O47
Close	USA vs TROY 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar season form & total	-10	25–9	W	U53
Close	WKU vs SHSU 2023 · Week 12 · close · similar situation & rest	-11	28–23	L	U52.25
Close	DUKE vs VT 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar situation & total	-10	24–7	W	U50
Close	BUFF vs OHIO 2021 · Week 7 · close · similar spread & rest	-7.5	27–26	L	U54.5
Close	USU vs WYO 2021 · Week 12 · close · similar situation & total	-5.75	17–44	L	O52

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
RICE LWWLW	4-5	44%	1-3	3-3
MEM LWLLL	4-5	44%	2-3	3-5

Venue/role: RICE away, as underdog; MEM home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
RICE UOUUU	3-6	33%	3-6
MEM UUOOO	4-5	44%	7-2

Stayed under: it needed 21 in the 4th quarter and got 17. 55% of games with totals 46.5–54.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
RICE	3-7 30%	4-6 40%	4-6 40%
MEM	8-2 80%	4-5-1 44%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

RICE−5.5 →−8.8▼ 3.3#104

MEM+2.0 →+1.2▼ 0.8#63

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW10

RICE

Longer bar = better

MEM

#117

Offense

MEM better ▶

#49

#29

Defense

◀ RICE better

#57

−0.9 #122

Turnovers

MEM better ▶

+1.0 #14

62 plays #119

Pace

MEM faster ▶

72 plays #19

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When RICE has the ball

Advantage: MEM defense

	RICE off	MEM def	Edge
Points / game	21.9 #114	23.4 #61	MEM
Yards / play	5.37 #100	5.62 #72	MEM
PPA / play	−0.03 #125	+0.09 #60	MEM
Success rate	35% #130	39% #33	MEM

When MEM has the ball

Even matchup

	MEM off	RICE def	Edge
Points / game	34.2 #27	23.3 #58	MEM
Yards / play	6.11 #50	4.80 #17	RICE
PPA / play	+0.19 #44	+0.04 #38	Even
Success rate	43% #76	34% #3	RICE

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

RICE scoring against the MEM defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
RICE scored	3.4 #119	6.7 #104	10.1 #117	6.1 #69	5.7 #102	11.8 #95
MEM allowed	5.4 #72	5.2 #23	10.7 #44	4.4 #37	8.3 #104	12.8 #79

MEM scoring against the RICE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MEM scored	7.7 #32	11.1 #23	18.8 #25	7.1 #48	8.3 #34	15.4 #39
RICE allowed	4.6 #51	6.4 #46	11.0 #50	5.4 #59	6.9 #81	12.3 #67

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.