New Mexico @ San Diego State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 11, 2024)

Fri, Nov 8, 2024, 10:30 PM ESTWeek 11 · at San Diego State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff58°F5 mphDryWeather watch ›

New Mexico

3-6 · Power #111

▲ winner

Final

San Diego State

3-5 · Power #122

final

Closing spread

SDSU -1.5

✓ UNM W

Total

65.5

▼ Under · 37 pts

Model before kickoff

UNM 31–33 SDSU

✗ SDSU (57%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenSDSU -3

CloseSDSU -1.5

Total67.5 → 65.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenSDSU -3

1.5 → UNM

CloseSDSU -1.5

1.5 pts toward New Mexico

Total

Open67.5

▼ 2

Close65.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened SDSU -3 · closed SDSU -1.5 · moved 1.5 toward UNMmodel SDSU -6

model SDSU -6

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 0.5–2.5 since 2023: won 50%, covered 46% (108 games)ⓘ

Moved off 3Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 53% (91 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenSDSU -3

CloseSDSU -1.5

Total67.5 → 65.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like SDSU as a 1.5-point home favorite against UNM, the favorite won 5, covered 4, and 2 went over the total.

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This game: UNM won 21–16 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 37 points stayed under 65.5, as in 8 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 56%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

2 of 1020%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 0.3 against an average line of 3.3; 52.7 points a game (usually 53.2). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	CSU vs UNM 2024 · Week 9 · very close · similar season form & rest	-3.5	17–6	W	U61.5
Very close	ODU vs GASO 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar total & spread	-1.5	23–28	L	U66
Close	USU vs HAW 2021 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & season form	-4	51–31	W	O66
Close	SJSU vs USU 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar total & rest	-4	42–21	W	U65
Close	ULM vs ARST 2021 · Week 11 · close · similar situation & total	-3	24–27	L	U66.5
Close	WMU vs OHIO 2022 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & season form	-2	14–33	L	U61.5
Close	BALL vs EMU 2022 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & season form	-2.5	16–20	L	U57.5
Close	GAST vs GASO 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	41–33	W	O66.5
Close	EMU vs NIU 2022 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & season form	-3.5	10–39	L	U64.25
Close	NAVY vs UNT 2023 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & team ratings	-6.5	27–24	L	U60.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UNM WWWLL	5-4	56%	3-2	2-3
SDSU WWWWL	4-3	57%	2-1	1-0

Venue/role: UNM away, as underdog; SDSU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UNM OOOUO	7-2	78%	3-6
SDSU UOOUO	3-4	43%	3-5

Stayed under: it needed 36 in the 4th quarter and got 7. 41% of games with totals 61.5–69.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UNM	3-7 30%	6-4 60%	8-2 80%
SDSU	4-6 40%	6-3 67%	4-5 44%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UNM−11.4 →−13.3▼ 1.9#118

SDSU−8.3 →−10.8▼ 2.5#112

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW10

UNM

Longer bar = better

SDSU

#26

Offense

◀ UNM better

#114

#133

Defense

SDSU better ▶

#82

−0.9 #123

Turnovers

SDSU better ▶

+0.4 #42

70 plays #30

Pace

◀ UNM faster

64 plays #98

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UNM has the ball

Advantage: UNM offense

	UNM off	SDSU def	Edge
Points / game	34.8 #26	27.6 #89	UNM
Yards / play	6.83 #15	5.40 #59	UNM
PPA / play	+0.23 #26	+0.14 #90	UNM
Success rate	46% #38	43% #91	UNM

When SDSU has the ball

Even matchup

	SDSU off	UNM def	Edge
Points / game	22.5 #109	40.8 #133	SDSU
Yards / play	5.16 #117	7.07 #135	Even
PPA / play	+0.08 #102	+0.30 #132	SDSU
Success rate	36% #129	51% #132	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

UNM scoring against the SDSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UNM scored	7.1 #45	12.1 #10	19.2 #21	7.4 #40	8.1 #43	15.6 #38
SDSU allowed	7.8 #116	5.5 #30	13.3 #79	5.6 #65	8.8 #113	14.4 #102

SDSU scoring against the UNM defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SDSU scored	4.0 #107	6.4 #110	10.4 #115	3.9 #113	8.3 #36	12.1 #89
UNM allowed	8.2 #120	12.4 #129	20.7 #128	6.6 #92	13.6 #133	20.1 #133

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.