UNLV @ Hawai'i: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 11, 2024)

Sat, Nov 9, 2024, 9:00 PM ESTWeek 11 · at Hawai'i · Conference game

Weather at kickoff79°F14 mphgusts 29DryWindy Over 48% of 274 games since 2023Weather watch ›

UNLV

6-2 · Power #42

▲ winner

Final

Hawai'i

4-5 · Power #109

final

Closing spread

UNLV -12.5

✓ HAW W

Total

50.5

▲ Over · 56 pts

Model before kickoff

UNLV 30–18 HAW

✓ UNLV (81%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUNLV -13.5

CloseUNLV -12.5

Total50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenUNLV -13.5

1 → HAW

CloseUNLV -12.5

1 pt toward Hawai'i

Total

Open50.5

no move

Close50.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened UNLV -13.5 · closed UNLV -12.5 · moved 1 toward HAWmodel UNLV -12.5 matches the line

model UNLV -12.5 = line ✓

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 10.5–14.5 since 2023: won 79%, covered 52% (68 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 53% (98 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUNLV -13.5

CloseUNLV -12.5

Total50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like UNLV as a 12.5-point road favorite at HAW, the favorite won 6, covered 4, and 8 went over the total.

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This game: UNLV won 29–27; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 56 points went over 50.5, as in 8 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 79%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 10.3 against an average line of 11.7; 67.3 points a game (usually 54.6). Of the 3 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	MD @ NU 2023 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & total	-14	27–33	L	O48.5
Very close	UTSA @ UTEP 2021 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & spread	-11.5	44–23	W	O53
Very close	APP @ TROY 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar total & season form	-10	45–7	W	O51.5
Very close	UAB @ RICE 2022 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & total	-10.5	24–28	L	O51
Very close	MEM @ CLT 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar team ratings & total	-10	44–38	L	O51.5
Very close	ARIZ @ ASU 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & situation	-12.5	59–23	W	O49.25
Very close	HOU @ USF 2021 · Week 10 · very close · similar situation & season form	-13.5	54–42	L	O53
Close	TOL @ CMU 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar situation & total	-10	32–17	W	U54.5
Close	KSU @ OKST 2023 · Week 6 · close · similar spread & situation	-11.5	21–29	L	U54
Close	WASH @ ASU 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar spread & season form	-13.5	38–45	L	O56

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UNLV WLLWL	4-3	57%	2-1	3-2
HAW LLLWW	4-4	50%	3-2	2-3

Venue/role: UNLV away, as favorite; HAW home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UNLV OOOUU	4-3	57%	6-2
HAW OUUOU	2-6	25%	4-5

Went over in Q4. Of 341 earlier overs in games with totals 46.5–54.5, 36% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UNLV	6-4 60%	4-5 44%	6-3 67%
HAW	5-5 50%	5-4 56%	2-7 22%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

UNLV 1–0 HAW UNLV leads · 1 game since 2023 · UNLV has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 30 2023	Hawai'i 20 @ UNLV 44	UNLV -10.5	UNLV W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UNLV−2.0 →+6.8▲ 8.8#38

HAW−11.7 →−8.0▲ 3.7#98

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW10

UNLV

Longer bar = better

HAW

#21

Offense

◀ UNLV better

#94

#41

Defense

Even

#51

+1.4 #3

Turnovers

◀ UNLV better

−0.6 #106

63 plays #104

Pace

HAW faster ▶

67 plays #68

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UNLV has the ball

Advantage: UNLV offense

	UNLV off	HAW def	Edge
Points / game	41.1 #4	22.0 #41	UNLV
Yards / play	6.66 #20	5.33 #54	UNLV
PPA / play	+0.27 #14	+0.10 #71	UNLV
Success rate	45% #46	39% #36	Even

When HAW has the ball

Advantage: UNLV defense

	HAW off	UNLV def	Edge
Points / game	21.4 #116	23.4 #63	UNLV
Yards / play	5.18 #115	5.20 #44	UNLV
PPA / play	+0.09 #97	+0.03 #33	UNLV
Success rate	45% #47	38% #25	UNLV

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

UNLV scoring against the HAW defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UNLV scored	9.9 #11	12.6 #8	22.5 #6	8.4 #29	9.9 #11	18.3 #13
HAW allowed	3.8 #34	6.8 #49	10.6 #40	5.3 #62	6.1 #60	11.4 #56

HAW scoring against the UNLV defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
HAW scored	7.0 #43	3.3 #133	10.3 #115	5.3 #83	5.8 #98	11.1 #103
UNLV allowed	5.1 #62	5.5 #28	10.6 #42	5.6 #70	6.4 #69	12.0 #64

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.