Fresno State @ Air Force: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 11, 2024)

Sat, Nov 9, 2024, 9:45 PM ESTWeek 11 · at Air Force · Conference game

Weather at kickoff28°F5 mphDryCold Over 50% of 115 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Fresno State

5-4 · Power #84

final

Final

Air Force

1-7 · Power #108

▲ winner

Closing spread

FRES -9.5

✓ AFA W

Total

40.5

▲ Over · 64 pts

Model before kickoff

FRES 24–15 AFA

✗ FRES (75%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenFRES -10

CloseFRES -9.5

Total42.5 → 40.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenFRES -10

0.5 → AFA

CloseFRES -9.5

0.5 pts toward Air Force

Total

Open42.5

▼ 2

Close40.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened FRES -10 · closed FRES -9.5 · moved 0.5 toward AFAmodel FRES -9

model FRES -9

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 8.5–10.5 since 2023: won 75%, covered 49% (52 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenFRES -10

CloseFRES -9.5

Total42.5 → 40.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like FRES as a 9.5-point road favorite at AFA, the favorite won 8, covered 5, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: AFA won 36–28 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 64 points went over 40.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 73%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 52%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 13.6 against an average line of 9.8; 41.8 points a game (usually 54.8). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	WYO @ NEV 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & rest	-11	42–6	W	O41.75
Very close	CSU @ AFA 2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & situation	-6	21–13	W	U44
Very close	WYO @ CSU 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & spread	-8.5	14–13	L	U42.5
Close	AFA @ UNM 2021 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & situation	-11.5	38–10	W	O45.5
Close	FRES @ UNM 2022 · Week 8 · close · similar total & rest	-9.75	41–9	W	O40.25
Close	SDSU @ UNLV 2021 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & spread	-11	28–20	L	O41
Close	SDSU @ UNM 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar situation & rest	-14.5	34–10	W	O36
Close	SYR @ BC 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & season form	-10.5	32–23	L	O47
Close	TOL @ WMU 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar situation & spread	-8.5	14–20	L	U50.5
Close	M-OH @ BGSU 2022 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & season form	-7	13–17	L	U45

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
FRES LLWWL	4-4	50%	2-1	4-2
AFA LLLLW	1-7	13%	0-4	1-4

Venue/role: FRES away, as favorite; AFA home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
FRES OUUUU	2-6	25%	5-4
AFA OOOUU	3-5	38%	1-7

Went over in Q3. Of 117 earlier overs in games with totals 36.5–44.5, 30% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
FRES	6-4 60%	5-4 56%	2-7 22%
AFA	2-8 20%	2-8 20%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

FRES−2.4 →−3.2▼ 0.8#80

AFA−9.1 →−17.3▼ 8.2#125

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW10

FRES

Longer bar = better

AFA

#100

Offense

◀ FRES better

#134

#42

Defense

◀ FRES better

#93

+0.6 #33

Turnovers

◀ FRES better

−0.5 #105

67 plays #69

Pace

Even

66 plays #79

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When FRES has the ball

Even matchup

	FRES off	AFA def	Edge
Points / game	27.8 #72	26.5 #82	Even
Yards / play	5.32 #104	6.08 #107	Even
PPA / play	+0.04 #111	+0.16 #100	Even
Success rate	38% #113	42% #81	AFA

When AFA has the ball

Advantage: FRES defense

	AFA off	FRES def	Edge
Points / game	13.8 #137	24.1 #67	FRES
Yards / play	4.30 #135	5.00 #30	FRES
PPA / play	−0.09 #134	−0.03 #15	FRES
Success rate	35% #131	40% #57	FRES

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

FRES scoring against the AFA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
FRES scored	6.7 #49	9.0 #52	15.7 #52	7.7 #36	4.4 #127	12.1 #89
AFA allowed	6.0 #88	6.0 #39	12.0 #65	8.5 #120	6.0 #58	14.5 #106

AFA scoring against the FRES defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
AFA scored	2.1 #131	5.9 #119	8.0 #130	0.0 #134	5.8 #103	5.8 #134
FRES allowed	6.8 #104	4.2 #11	11.0 #51	2.6 #7	10.6 #128	13.1 #82

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.