Colorado State @ Fresno State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 13, 2024)

Sat, Nov 23, 2024, 10:30 PM ESTWeek 13 · at Fresno State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff56°F4 mphDryWeather watch ›

Colorado State

7-3 · Power #100

final

Final

Fresno State

5-5 · Power #84

▲ winner

Closing spread

FRES -3.5

✓ FRES W

Total

42.5

▲ Over · 50 pts

Model before kickoff

CSU 22–26 FRES

✓ FRES (61%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenFRES -2.5

CloseFRES -3.5

Total47.5 → 42.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenFRES -2.5

1 → FRES

CloseFRES -3.5

1 pt toward Fresno State

Total

Open47.5

▼ 5

Close42.5

Down 5 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened FRES -2.5 · closed FRES -3.5 · moved 1 toward FRESmodel FRES -6

model FRES -6

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 57%, covered 48% (192 games)ⓘ

Crossed 3The team the line moved toward covered 46% (46 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenFRES -2.5

CloseFRES -3.5

Total47.5 → 42.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like FRES as a 3.5-point home favorite against CSU, the favorite won 4, covered 4, and 8 went over the total.

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This game: FRES won 28–22; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 50 points went over 42.5, as in 8 of 10.

Favorite won

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 59%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 3.8 against an average line of 3.2; 54.8 points a game (usually 53.1). Of the 5 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	CIN vs ISU 2023 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & spread	-5	10–30	L	U42.5
Very close	NIU vs TOL 2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & team ratings	-3	6–13	L	U42.5
Very close	ARMY vs BC 2023 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-2.5	24–27	L	O47
Close	VT vs NCSU 2023 · Week 12 · close · similar situation & total	-2.5	28–35	L	O41
Close	USM vs GAST 2022 · Week 10 · close · similar situation & season form	-2	14–42	L	O48
Close	CCU vs ODU 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & team ratings	-4	45–37	W	O51.5
Close	TROY vs USA 2021 · Week 10 · close · similar spread & situation	-3.5	31–24	W	O47.5
Close	JMU vs USA 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar spread & season form	-3	31–23	W	O49.5
Close	CSU vs SJSU 2021 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & team ratings	-3.5	32–14	W	O44.5
Close	WVU vs OKST 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar spread & season form	-3	34–48	L	O48.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CSU WWWWW	7-3	70%	3-1	1-2
FRES LWWLL	4-5	44%	2-3	4-3

Venue/role: CSU away, as underdog; FRES home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
CSU OUUOU	4-6	40%	7-3
FRES UUUUO	3-6	33%	5-5

Went over in Q4. Of 183 earlier overs in games with totals 38.5–46.5, 33% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CSU	7-3 70%	7-3 70%	4-6 40%
FRES	5-5 50%	4-5 44%	3-6 33%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

CSU−8.3 →−6.8▲ 1.5#98

FRES−2.4 →−4.4▼ 2.0#84

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW12

CSU

Longer bar = better

FRES

#79

Offense

◀ CSU better

#98

#65

Defense

FRES better ▶

#46

+0.1 #56

Turnovers

FRES better ▶

+0.4 #42

62 plays #117

Pace

FRES faster ▶

64 plays #102

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When CSU has the ball

Advantage: FRES defense

	CSU off	FRES def	Edge
Points / game	23.6 #102	25.3 #73	FRES
Yards / play	5.97 #56	4.90 #24	FRES
PPA / play	+0.11 #85	0.00 #18	FRES
Success rate	43% #71	42% #69	Even

When FRES has the ball

Advantage: CSU defense

	FRES off	CSU def	Edge
Points / game	27.8 #72	22.7 #50	CSU
Yards / play	5.45 #96	5.69 #81	Even
PPA / play	+0.05 #111	+0.05 #46	CSU
Success rate	39% #112	42% #82	CSU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

CSU scoring against the FRES defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CSU scored	6.2 #55	6.8 #102	13.0 #83	4.9 #98	5.0 #121	9.9 #116
FRES allowed	6.8 #104	4.8 #14	11.6 #53	3.2 #12	10.5 #128	13.7 #90

FRES scoring against the CSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
FRES scored	6.7 #49	9.5 #47	16.2 #39	6.9 #51	4.7 #124	11.6 #99
CSU allowed	2.1 #9	6.8 #52	8.9 #16	5.2 #56	7.1 #82	12.3 #69

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.