Fresno State @ UCLA: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 14, 2024)

Sat, Nov 30, 2024, 3:30 PM ESTWeek 14 · at UCLA

Weather at kickoff75°F1 mphgusts 9DryWeather watch ›

Fresno State

6-5 · Power #84

final

Final

UCLA

4-7 · Power #48

▲ winner

Closing spread

UCLA -7.5

✓ FRES W

Total

46.5

▼ Under · 33 pts

Model before kickoff

FRES 19–27 UCLA

✓ UCLA (73%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUCLA -10

CloseUCLA -7.5

Total46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenUCLA -10

2.5 → FRES

CloseUCLA -7.5

2.5 pts toward Fresno State

Total

Open46.5

no move

Close46.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened UCLA -10 · closed UCLA -7.5 · moved 2.5 toward FRESmodel UCLA -12

model UCLA -12

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 6.5–8.5 since 2023: won 71%, covered 55% (121 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 50% (98 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUCLA -10

CloseUCLA -7.5

Total46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like UCLA as a 7.5-point home favorite against FRES, the favorite won 8, covered 5, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: UCLA won 20–13; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 33 points stayed under 46.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 70%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 8.6 against an average line of 7.5; 50.6 points a game (usually 53.8). Of the 4 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	CAL vs COLO 2021 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & spread	-8.25	26–3	W	U44
Very close	TROY vs ARMY 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & total	-8.5	10–9	L	U45.5
Very close	SC vs TROY 2021 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & total	-6.5	23–14	W	U43.5
Very close	WYO vs CSU 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & total	-6	24–15	W	U43.5
Very close	MINN vs UL 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & total	-10	35–24	W	O48.5
Very close	MSU vs RUTG 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & season form	-10	27–21	L	O41
Very close	ILL vs NU 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar total & rest	-5.5	43–45	L	O46.75
Close	ILL vs IU 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & total	-4.5	48–45	L	O43.5
Close	CAL vs NCSU 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & total	-9.5	23–24	L	O46
Close	GAST vs TROY 2021 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & season form	-6.5	37–10	W	U49.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
FRES WWLLW	5-5	50%	2-2	0-2
UCLA WWWLL	5-5	50%	2-3	0-1

Venue/role: FRES away, as underdog; UCLA home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
FRES UUUOO	4-6	40%	6-5
UCLA OOUOU	4-6	40%	4-7

Stayed under: it needed 24 in the 4th quarter and got 10. 54% of games with totals 42.5–50.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
FRES	6-4 60%	5-5 50%	4-6 40%
UCLA	3-7 30%	5-4 56%	4-5 44%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

FRES−2.4 →−4.5▼ 2.1#85

UCLA+7.7 →+4.0▼ 3.7#50

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW13

FRES

Longer bar = better

UCLA

#97

Offense

Even

#109

#43

Defense

◀ FRES better

#87

+0.4 #43

Turnovers

◀ FRES better

−0.5 #105

64 plays #104

Pace

◀ FRES faster

60 plays #128

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When FRES has the ball

Even matchup

	FRES off	UCLA def	Edge
Points / game	27.8 #70	26.4 #79	Even
Yards / play	5.45 #95	5.46 #62	UCLA
PPA / play	+0.06 #107	+0.12 #84	UCLA
Success rate	39% #116	47% #124	Even

When UCLA has the ball

Advantage: FRES defense

	UCLA off	FRES def	Edge
Points / game	18.3 #127	25.0 #69	FRES
Yards / play	5.39 #99	4.91 #23	FRES
PPA / play	+0.07 #99	+0.01 #21	FRES
Success rate	39% #112	41% #57	FRES

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

FRES scoring against the UCLA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
FRES scored	6.7 #50	10.5 #29	17.3 #32	6.3 #61	4.3 #127	10.5 #109
UCLA allowed	5.6 #80	7.1 #60	12.7 #74	5.5 #65	8.2 #105	13.6 #89

UCLA scoring against the FRES defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UCLA scored	3.0 #126	7.1 #95	10.1 #117	4.5 #104	3.6 #131	8.2 #127
FRES allowed	6.8 #103	4.4 #10	11.2 #48	3.5 #16	10.3 #126	13.8 #94

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.