Notre Dame @ USC: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 14, 2024)

Sat, Nov 30, 2024, 3:30 PM ESTWeek 14 · at USC

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Notre Dame

10-1 · Power #4

▲ winner

Final

USC

6-5 · Power #16

final

Closing spread

ND -6.5

✓ ND W

Total

52.5

▲ Over · 84 pts

Model before kickoff

ND 30–23 USC

✓ ND (67%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenND -6.5

CloseND -6.5

Total50.5 → 52.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenND -6.5

no move

CloseND -6.5

No change since the open

Total

Open50.5

▲ 2

Close52.5

Up 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened ND -6.5 · unchangedmodel ND -4.5

model ND -4.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 5.5–7.5 since 2023: won 67%, covered 58% (108 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenND -6.5

CloseND -6.5

Total50.5 → 52.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ND as a 6.5-point road favorite at USC, the favorite won 8, covered 7, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: ND won 49–35; the favorite covered, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 84 points went over 52.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 67%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 15.1 against an average line of 6.3; 58.3 points a game (usually 53.7). Of the 4 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	ND @ LOU 2023 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & spread	-6	20–33	L	U54
Very close	CLEM @ FSU 2022 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & spread	-4.5	34–28	W	O51
Very close	ISU @ WVU 2024 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & total	-3	28–16	W	U54
Very close	CLEM @ VT 2024 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & total	-5.5	24–14	W	U54.5
Close	PSU @ MD 2023 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & season form	-8.5	51–15	W	O50.5
Close	MISS @ ARK 2024 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & season form	-8	63–31	W	O54
Close	UGA @ TENN 2023 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & team ratings	-9	38–10	W	U59
Close	KSU @ KU 2023 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & season form	-7.5	31–27	L	U59.5
Close	OSU @ ORE 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & total	-3.5	31–32	L	O54.5
Close	IU @ MSU 2024 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & spread	-7.5	47–10	W	O53.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ND WWWLW	8-3	73%	2-0	7-3
USC LWLWW	7-4	64%	5-0	2-0

Venue/role: ND away, as favorite; USC home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ND UOOUO	6-5	55%	10-1
USC OOUUU	5-6	45%	6-5

Went over in Q3. Of 373 earlier overs in games with totals 48.5–56.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ND	9-1 90%	7-3 70%	6-4 60%
USC	5-5 50%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

ND 1–0 USC ND leads · 1 game since 2023 · ND has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 14 2023	USC 20 @ Notre Dame 48	ND -3.5	ND W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ND+18.9 →+21.5▲ 2.6#4

USC+10.9 →+13.4▲ 2.5#17

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW13

Longer bar = better

USC

#17

Offense

◀ ND better

#33

Defense

◀ ND better

#60

+1.5 #2

Turnovers

◀ ND better

−0.2 #83

63 plays #115

Pace

USC faster ▶

68 plays #50

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ND has the ball

Advantage: ND offense

	ND off	USC def	Edge
Points / game	39.0 #6	21.2 #32	ND
Yards / play	6.68 #14	5.68 #78	ND
PPA / play	+0.27 #15	+0.06 #50	ND
Success rate	46% #31	42% #81	ND

When USC has the ball

Advantage: ND defense

	USC off	ND def	Edge
Points / game	29.3 #56	11.6 #2	ND
Yards / play	6.28 #33	4.24 #3	ND
PPA / play	+0.21 #28	−0.20 #1	ND
Success rate	48% #15	34% #3	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

ND scoring against the USC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ND scored	8.5 #17	12.9 #4	21.5 #7	9.4 #12	8.2 #44	17.5 #12
USC allowed	3.9 #34	6.7 #54	10.6 #37	5.3 #59	5.0 #32	10.3 #34

USC scoring against the ND defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
USC scored	5.0 #87	9.5 #44	14.5 #62	7.5 #36	7.3 #60	14.8 #49
ND allowed	3.4 #20	2.7 #2	6.1 #3	1.9 #3	3.6 #6	5.5 #4

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.