UConn @ Massachusetts: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 14, 2024)

Sat, Nov 30, 2024, 12:00 PM ESTWeek 14 · at Massachusetts

Weather at kickoff36°F7 mphgusts 17DryCold Over 50% of 115 games since 2023Weather watch ›

UConn

7-4 · Power #80

▲ winner

Final

Massachusetts

2-9 · Power #125

final

Closing spread

CONN -9.5

✓ MASS W

Total

49.5

▲ Over · 89 pts

Model before kickoff

CONN 30–20 MASS

✓ CONN (75%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenCONN -11

CloseCONN -9.5

Total50.5 → 49.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenCONN -11

1.5 → MASS

CloseCONN -9.5

1.5 pts toward Massachusetts

Total

Open50.5

▼ 1

Close49.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened CONN -11 · closed CONN -9.5 · moved 1.5 toward MASSmodel CONN -10

model CONN -10

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 8.5–10.5 since 2023: won 71%, covered 48% (59 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 53% (128 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenCONN -11

CloseCONN -9.5

Total50.5 → 49.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like CONN as a 9.5-point road favorite at MASS, the favorite won 7, covered 5, and 4 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: CONN won 47–42; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 89 points went over 49.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 73%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 52%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 13 against an average line of 9; 50.6 points a game (usually 54.6). Of the 3 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	USA @ ULM 2023 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & total	-11	55–7	W	O51
Very close	SHSU @ UTEP 2024 · Week 6 · very close · similar total & season form	-10	41–21	W	O49.5
Very close	MEM @ CLT 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & spread	-10	44–38	L	O51.5
Very close	UL @ ULM 2022 · Week 4 · very close · similar rest & spread	-9.5	17–21	L	U51
Very close	TOL @ WMU 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar total & situation	-8.5	14–20	L	U50.5
Very close	JMU @ ODU 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & total	-7.5	37–3	W	U48
Very close	FAU @ ODU 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & total	-6.5	16–30	L	U48
Very close	TOL @ CMU 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & situation	-10	32–17	W	U54.5
Very close	USA @ ARST 2022 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & rest	-9	31–3	W	U52
Very close	TROY @ TXST 2021 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & total	-7.5	31–28	L	O48.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CONN LWLWW	7-4	64%	3-1	4-2
MASS LWLWW	5-6	45%	2-3	4-4

Venue/role: CONN away, as favorite; MASS home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
CONN UUOOO	9-2	82%	7-4
MASS UUOOO	6-5	55%	2-9

Went over in Q2. Of 352 earlier overs in games with totals 45.5–53.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CONN	7-3 70%	7-3 70%	8-2 80%
MASS	2-8 20%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

CONN 6–4 MASS CONN leads · 10 games since 1899 · CONN has won the last 3 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 25 2023	UConn 31 @ Massachusetts 18	MASS -2.5	CONN W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

CONN−11.5 →−4.7▲ 6.8#88

MASS−12.1 →−15.9▼ 3.8#124

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW13

CONN

Longer bar = better

MASS

#74

Offense

◀ CONN better

#105

#38

Defense

◀ CONN better

#117

−0.1 #78

Turnovers

Even

−0.2 #82

70 plays #26

Pace

◀ CONN faster

67 plays #71

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When CONN has the ball

Advantage: CONN offense

	CONN off	MASS def	Edge
Points / game	31.0 #47	34.5 #121	CONN
Yards / play	5.64 #80	6.19 #110	CONN
PPA / play	+0.13 #72	+0.23 #119	CONN
Success rate	41% #97	46% #118	CONN

When MASS has the ball

Advantage: CONN defense

	MASS off	CONN def	Edge
Points / game	20.7 #121	22.2 #42	CONN
Yards / play	5.10 #119	5.09 #36	CONN
PPA / play	+0.11 #80	+0.02 #27	CONN
Success rate	41% #98	40% #47	CONN

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

CONN scoring against the MASS defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CONN scored	6.7 #48	6.7 #101	13.5 #78	8.2 #25	9.4 #18	17.5 #12
MASS allowed	4.5 #52	10.0 #113	14.5 #93	10.3 #132	8.8 #112	19.1 #131

MASS scoring against the CONN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MASS scored	4.7 #91	6.9 #99	11.6 #99	2.2 #130	6.4 #92	8.5 #124
CONN allowed	4.0 #38	7.3 #64	11.3 #50	3.8 #24	7.1 #76	10.9 #44

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.