UConn @ Syracuse: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 13, 2024)

Sat, Nov 23, 2024, 12:00 PM ESTWeek 13 · at Syracuse

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

UConn

7-3 · Power #80

final

Final

Syracuse

7-3 · Power #43

▲ winner

Closing spread

SYR -9.5

✓ CONN W

Total

53.5

▲ Over · 55 pts

Model before kickoff

CONN 22–32 SYR

✓ SYR (76%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenSYR -11

CloseSYR -9.5

Total54.5 → 53.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenSYR -11

1.5 → CONN

CloseSYR -9.5

1.5 pts toward UConn

Total

Open54.5

▼ 1

Close53.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened SYR -11 · closed SYR -9.5 · moved 1.5 toward CONNmodel SYR -12

model SYR -12

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 8.5–10.5 since 2023: won 78%, covered 43% (88 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 54% (112 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenSYR -11

CloseSYR -9.5

Total54.5 → 53.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like SYR as a 9.5-point home favorite against CONN, the favorite won 7, covered 5, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: SYR won 31–24; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 55 points went over 53.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 73%

Favorite covered

5 of 956%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 52%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 11.5 against an average line of 9.1; 53.9 points a game (usually 54.6). Of the 2 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	LOU vs JMU 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & total	-6.5	34–10	W	U53.5
Close	FAU vs UTEP 2021 · Week 9 · close · similar spread & rest	-11	28–25	L	O49
Close	APP vs GAST 2022 · Week 8 · close · similar team ratings & spread	-9.5	42–17	W	U60.25
Close	FLA vs SC 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar season form & spread	-8	38–6	W	U58
Close	WKU vs LT 2024 · Week 12 · close · similar total & spread	-11.5	7–12	L	U52.5
Close	MINN vs UL 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar spread	-10	35–24	W	O48.5
Close	UAB vs MTSU 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar total	-10	41–14	W	O53
Close	TOL vs EMU 2021 · Week 10 · close · similar season form & spread	-9.25	49–52	L	O54.5
Close	ILL vs CLT 2021 · Week 5 · close · similar total	-10	24–14	P	U54
Close	WKU vs NMSU 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar season form	-5	29–38	L	O54.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CONN LLWLW	6-4	60%	2-1	2-2
SYR WLWLW	5-5	50%	2-3	1-3

Venue/role: CONN away, as underdog; SYR home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
CONN OUUOO	8-2	80%	7-3
SYR UUOOO	5-5	50%	7-3

Went over in Q4. Of 329 earlier overs in games with totals 49.5–57.5, 35% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CONN	7-3 70%	6-4 60%	8-2 80%
SYR	7-3 70%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

CONN−11.5 →−4.7▲ 6.8#88

SYR−2.1 →+3.9▲ 6.0#52

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW12

CONN

Longer bar = better

SYR

#69

Offense

SYR better ▶

#47

#29

Defense

◀ CONN better

#101

−0.1 #74

Turnovers

Even

−0.1 #78

71 plays #23

Pace

SYR faster ▶

79 plays #2

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When CONN has the ball

Advantage: CONN offense

	CONN off	SYR def	Edge
Points / game	31.7 #38	28.2 #91	CONN
Yards / play	5.66 #75	6.09 #108	CONN
PPA / play	+0.13 #71	+0.18 #104	CONN
Success rate	42% #91	44% #101	Even

When SYR has the ball

Even matchup

	SYR off	CONN def	Edge
Points / game	31.8 #37	21.3 #37	Even
Yards / play	5.64 #78	4.90 #28	CONN
PPA / play	+0.17 #49	−0.02 #14	CONN
Success rate	47% #23	38% #37	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

CONN scoring against the SYR defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CONN scored	6.7 #45	6.7 #107	13.4 #74	8.7 #22	9.6 #15	18.3 #8
SYR allowed	5.8 #86	8.6 #90	14.4 #88	5.4 #63	8.1 #106	13.5 #88

SYR scoring against the CONN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SYR scored	4.4 #100	10.3 #31	14.7 #58	8.3 #25	7.5 #54	15.8 #31
CONN allowed	3.7 #28	6.6 #50	10.3 #34	3.9 #25	7.1 #82	11.0 #49

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.