North Carolina @ Boston College: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 13, 2024)

Sat, Nov 23, 2024, 12:00 PM ESTWeek 13 · at Boston College · Conference game

Weather at kickoff42°F13 mphgusts 26Wet0.0 mmWindy Over 48% of 274 games since 2023Weather watch ›

North Carolina

6-4 · Power #64

final

Final

Boston College

5-5 · Power #58

▲ winner

Closing spread

UNC -1.5

✓ BC W

Total

50.5

▲ Over · 62 pts

Model before kickoff

UNC 28–26 BC

✗ UNC (54%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUNC -2

CloseUNC -1.5

Total56.5 → 50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenUNC -2

0.5 → BC

CloseUNC -1.5

0.5 pts toward Boston College

Total

Open56.5

▼ 6

Close50.5

Down 6 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened UNC -2 · closed UNC -1.5 · moved 0.5 toward BCmodel UNC -2

model UNC -2

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 0.5–2.5 since 2023: won 54%, covered 51% (92 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUNC -2

CloseUNC -1.5

Total56.5 → 50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like UNC as a 1.5-point road favorite at BC, the favorite won 5, covered 4, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: BC won 41–21 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 62 points went over 50.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 56%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 0.7 against an average line of 3.1; 48.7 points a game (usually 53.3). Of the 2 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	KU @ OKST 2023 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3	32–39	L	O54
Very close	UCLA @ ARIZ 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	10–27	L	U49.5
Close	MD @ NEB 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar situation & rest	-1.5	13–10	W	U42
Close	ORST @ STAN 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & total	-4.5	28–27	L	O53.25
Close	WVU @ VT 2022 · Week 4 · close · similar spread & rest	-2	33–10	W	U49.75
Close	WVU @ HOU 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar spread & situation	-3	39–41	L	O49.5
Close	SYR @ NCSU 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & team ratings	-1	24–17	W	U51.5
Close	TOL @ BUFF 2022 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & season form	-7	27–34	L	O56
Close	TTU @ BYU 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & spread	-3	14–27	L	U50
Close	MSU @ IU 2021 · Week 7 · close · similar spread & situation	-3.5	20–15	W	U48.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UNC LLWWL	3-7	30%	3-1	2-5
BC LLWWW	6-4	60%	3-2	4-2

Venue/role: UNC away, as favorite; BC home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UNC UOUUU	3-7	30%	6-4
BC UOOOO	5-5	50%	5-5

Went over in Q4. Of 355 earlier overs in games with totals 46.5–54.5, 35% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UNC	6-4 60%	3-7 30%	3-7 30%
BC	5-5 50%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UNC+7.2 →+4.8▼ 2.4#48

BC−1.3 →+0.8▲ 2.1#65

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW12

UNC

Longer bar = better

#44

Offense

◀ UNC better

#82

#65

Defense

Even

#78

+0.2 #59

Turnovers

BC better ▶

+0.4 #39

73 plays #10

Pace

◀ UNC faster

65 plays #93

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UNC has the ball

Advantage: UNC offense

	UNC off	BC def	Edge
Points / game	33.7 #31	24.5 #65	UNC
Yards / play	6.04 #52	5.70 #81	UNC
PPA / play	+0.18 #44	+0.11 #72	UNC
Success rate	44% #49	43% #93	UNC

When BC has the ball

Even matchup

	BC off	UNC def	Edge
Points / game	27.6 #74	26.2 #78	Even
Yards / play	5.56 #82	5.59 #68	Even
PPA / play	+0.10 #89	+0.12 #75	Even
Success rate	42% #83	39% #39	UNC

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

UNC scoring against the BC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UNC scored	5.9 #66	10.3 #31	16.2 #43	9.5 #13	8.0 #44	17.5 #14
BC allowed	3.7 #28	9.1 #97	12.8 #73	4.8 #44	6.9 #75	11.7 #55

BC scoring against the UNC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BC scored	4.2 #103	10.3 #31	14.5 #59	8.2 #29	4.9 #121	13.1 #70
UNC allowed	5.4 #76	7.8 #75	13.2 #78	5.7 #71	7.3 #88	13.0 #80

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.