Pittsburgh @ Louisville: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 13, 2024)

Sat, Nov 23, 2024, 4:00 PM ESTWeek 13 · at Louisville · Conference game

Weather at kickoff46°F5 mphgusts 12DryWeather watch ›

Pittsburgh

7-3 · Power #57

final

Final

Louisville

6-4 · Power #14

▲ winner

Closing spread

LOU -7.5

✓ LOU W

Total

57.5

▼ Under · 46 pts

Model before kickoff

PITT 25–32 LOU

✓ LOU (71%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenLOU -8.5

CloseLOU -7.5

Total56.5 → 57.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenLOU -8.5

1 → PITT

CloseLOU -7.5

1 pt toward Pittsburgh

Total

Open56.5

▲ 1

Close57.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened LOU -8.5 · closed LOU -7.5 · moved 1 toward PITTmodel LOU -9.5

model LOU -9.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 6.5–8.5 since 2023: won 70%, covered 54% (116 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 53% (122 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenLOU -8.5

CloseLOU -7.5

Total56.5 → 57.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like LOU as a 7.5-point home favorite against PITT, the favorite won 10, covered 10, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: LOU won 37–9; the favorite covered, as in 10 of the 10 similar games. 46 points stayed under 57.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Above normal · usually 70%

Favorite covered

10 of 10100%

Above normal · usually 50%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 50%

Wins above normal, covers above normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: favorite by 20.9 against an average line of 7.7; 55.3 points a game (usually 53.8). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	UCLA vs CAL 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & total	-6.5	42–14	W	U58.5
Very close	ORE vs ORST 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & rest	-7.5	38–29	W	O61.25
Very close	FLA vs SC 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & situation	-8	38–6	W	U58
Very close	PSU vs MD 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & situation	-10.5	30–0	W	U56.5
Very close	CLEM vs LOU 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & situation	-7	31–16	W	U52
Very close	TEX vs WVU 2022 · Week 5 · very close · similar team ratings & season form	-7.5	38–20	W	U61
Very close	SMU vs UCF 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & rest	-7	55–28	W	O61.5
Very close	ISU vs CIN 2024 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & spread	-7	34–17	W	U52.5
Very close	ISU vs TEX 2021 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & situation	-6	30–7	W	U59.5
Very close	WAKE vs SYR 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & situation	-9.5	45–35	W	O58.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
PITT LWLLW	6-4	60%	1-2	2-1
LOU LLLWL	4-6	40%	3-2	3-4

Venue/role: PITT away, as underdog; LOU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
PITT UUOUU	4-6	40%	7-3
LOU UOOUO	7-3	70%	6-4

Stayed under: it needed 14 in the 4th quarter and got 2. 52% of games with totals 53.5–61.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
PITT	7-3 70%	6-4 60%	4-6 40%
LOU	6-4 60%	4-6 40%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

PITT 1–0 LOU PITT leads · 1 game since 2023 · PITT has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 14 2023	Louisville 21 @ Pittsburgh 38	LOU -7.5	PITT W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

PITT−0.9 →+5.9▲ 6.8#41

LOU+9.6 →+12.1▲ 2.5#18

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW12

PITT

Longer bar = better

LOU

#48

Offense

LOU better ▶

#16

#42

Defense

◀ PITT better

#67

+0.4 #42

Turnovers

◀ PITT better

−0.2 #83

69 plays #38

Pace

◀ PITT faster

65 plays #86

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When PITT has the ball

Even matchup

	PITT off	LOU def	Edge
Points / game	35.0 #24	25.6 #73	PITT
Yards / play	6.20 #41	5.33 #52	Even
PPA / play	+0.18 #46	+0.14 #89	PITT
Success rate	43% #81	41% #55	LOU

When LOU has the ball

Advantage: LOU offense

	LOU off	PITT def	Edge
Points / game	36.1 #15	25.0 #69	LOU
Yards / play	6.87 #10	4.86 #24	Even
PPA / play	+0.25 #20	+0.04 #36	Even
Success rate	47% #20	39% #38	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

PITT scoring against the LOU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
PITT scored	8.5 #18	9.6 #47	18.1 #29	5.3 #83	11.6 #3	16.9 #22
LOU allowed	8.3 #124	6.4 #41	14.7 #94	4.1 #32	6.8 #73	10.9 #44

LOU scoring against the PITT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LOU scored	6.5 #48	11.4 #18	17.9 #32	9.9 #11	8.3 #37	18.2 #10
PITT allowed	5.5 #78	8.4 #86	13.9 #86	6.4 #89	4.7 #24	11.1 #50

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.