Cincinnati @ Iowa State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2024)

Sat, Nov 16, 2024, 8:00 PM ESTWeek 12 · at Iowa State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff50°F11 mphgusts 22DryWeather watch ›

Cincinnati

5-4 · Power #45

final

Final

Iowa State

7-2 · Power #24

▲ winner

Closing spread

ISU -7.5

✓ ISU W

Total

52.5

▼ Under · 51 pts

Model before kickoff

CIN 21–28 ISU

✓ ISU (71%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenISU -8

CloseISU -7.5

Total53.5 → 52.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenISU -8

0.5 → CIN

CloseISU -7.5

0.5 pts toward Cincinnati

Total

Open53.5

▼ 1

Close52.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened ISU -8 · closed ISU -7.5 · moved 0.5 toward CINmodel ISU -9

model ISU -9

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 6.5–8.5 since 2023: won 69%, covered 54% (114 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenISU -8

CloseISU -7.5

Total53.5 → 52.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ISU as a 7.5-point home favorite against CIN, the favorite won 7, covered 6, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: ISU won 34–17; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 51 points stayed under 52.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 70%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 6.7 against an average line of 7.8; 49.9 points a game (usually 53.8). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	CLEM vs LOU 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & situation	-7	31–16	W	U52
Very close	AUB vs MSST 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & situation	-5.75	34–43	L	O51
Very close	NCST vs LOU 2021 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-6	28–13	W	U57
Very close	KSU vs TTU 2022 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & spread	-7.5	37–28	W	O56
Very close	UCLA vs CAL 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & total	-9.5	7–33	L	U51
Very close	PSU vs MD 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & season form	-10.5	30–0	W	U56.5
Very close	MIZ vs SC 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & spread	-7.5	34–12	W	U57.5
Very close	TEX vs BAY 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & rest	-10	38–27	W	O55.25
Very close	WVU vs TTU 2021 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & spread	-7.5	20–23	L	U55.25
Very close	ISU vs OKST 2021 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & season form	-7	24–21	L	U47

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CIN WWWLL	5-3	63%	3-1	3-1
ISU WWLLL	5-4	56%	2-3	4-4

Venue/role: CIN away, as underdog; ISU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
CIN OUUOO	4-4	50%	5-4
ISU OUOUO	5-4	56%	7-2

Stayed under: it needed 23 in the 4th quarter and got 21. 52% of games with totals 48.5–56.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CIN	5-5 50%	5-4 56%	5-4 56%
ISU	7-3 70%	5-4-1 56%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

CIN 0–1 ISU ISU leads · 1 game since 2023 · ISU has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 14 2023	Iowa State 30 @ Cincinnati 10	CIN -3.5	ISU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

CIN−1.7 →+5.8▲ 7.5#43

ISU+4.2 →+11.0▲ 6.8#20

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

CIN

Longer bar = better

ISU

#40

Offense

Even

#51

#75

Defense

ISU better ▶

#50

−0.1 #79

Turnovers

ISU better ▶

+0.9 #18

69 plays #41

Pace

Even

70 plays #32

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When CIN has the ball

Even matchup

	CIN off	ISU def	Edge
Points / game	28.6 #63	18.8 #19	ISU
Yards / play	6.36 #33	5.27 #47	Even
PPA / play	+0.19 #38	+0.05 #42	Even
Success rate	46% #27	43% #90	CIN

When ISU has the ball

Advantage: ISU offense

	ISU off	CIN def	Edge
Points / game	31.1 #46	22.2 #45	Even
Yards / play	6.32 #35	6.16 #110	ISU
PPA / play	+0.20 #36	+0.08 #55	Even
Success rate	42% #85	43% #89	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

CIN scoring against the ISU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CIN scored	10.3 #7	7.2 #90	17.6 #35	5.2 #86	5.8 #101	11.0 #105
ISU allowed	5.8 #86	5.6 #31	11.3 #48	3.8 #23	3.7 #7	7.4 #10

ISU scoring against the CIN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ISU scored	5.7 #77	7.8 #78	13.4 #75	6.9 #50	10.8 #8	17.7 #12
CIN allowed	4.1 #45	7.1 #61	11.2 #46	6.1 #87	4.9 #31	11.0 #49

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.