Arizona State @ Kansas State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2024)

Sat, Nov 16, 2024, 7:00 PM ESTWeek 12 · at Kansas State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff59°F12 mphgusts 23DryWeather watch ›

Arizona State

7-2 · Power #18

▲ winner

Final

Kansas State

7-2 · Power #20

final

Closing spread

KSU -7.5

✓ ASU W

Total

51.5

▼ Under · 38 pts

Model before kickoff

ASU 21–29 KSU

✗ KSU (71%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenKSU -8.5

CloseKSU -7.5

Total50.5 → 51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenKSU -8.5

1 → ASU

CloseKSU -7.5

1 pt toward Arizona State

Total

Open50.5

▲ 1

Close51.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened KSU -8.5 · closed KSU -7.5 · moved 1 toward ASUmodel KSU -9

model KSU -9

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 6.5–8.5 since 2023: won 70%, covered 55% (111 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 53% (105 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenKSU -8.5

CloseKSU -7.5

Total50.5 → 51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like KSU as a 7.5-point home favorite against ASU, the favorite won 7, covered 5, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: ASU won 24–14 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 38 points stayed under 51.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 70%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

4 of 944%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 6.4 against an average line of 6.7; 48.8 points a game (usually 53.8). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	CLEM vs LOU 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & total	-7	31–16	W	U52
Very close	AUB vs MSST 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & total	-5.75	34–43	L	O51
Very close	LIB vs UL 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & total	-4.25	14–42	L	O53.5
Very close	LOU vs VT 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar situation & season form	-9.75	34–3	W	U48.5
Very close	ISU vs OKST 2021 · Week 8 · very close · similar team ratings & situation	-7	24–21	L	U47
Very close	TROY vs APP 2023 · Week 14 · very close · similar total & season form	-5.5	49–23	W	O52.5
Close	KSU vs KU 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar team ratings & situation	-10	29–27	L	P56
Close	TA&M vs AUB 2021 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & season form	-4.5	20–3	W	U49.5
Close	AUB vs VAN 2024 · Week 10 · close · similar season form & situation	-7.5	7–17	L	U48
Close	KSU vs WVU 2021 · Week 11 · close · similar situation & spread	-6	34–17	W	O47

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ASU WWLWW	7-2	78%	2-2	2-2
KSU WLWLL	3-6	33%	2-2	3-6

Venue/role: ASU away, as underdog; KSU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ASU OUUOO	5-4	56%	7-2
KSU OOOOU	5-4	56%	7-2

Stayed under: it needed 22 in the 4th quarter and got 8. 55% of games with totals 47.5–55.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ASU	7-3 70%	7-3 70%	6-4 60%
KSU	8-2 80%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

ASU 6–1 KSU ASU leads · 7 games since 1964 · ASU has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ASU−3.3 →+6.6▲ 9.9#38

KSU+11.5 →+12.1▲ 0.6#19

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

ASU

Longer bar = better

KSU

#36

Offense

Even

#31

#50

Defense

KSU better ▶

#32

+0.8 #23

Turnovers

◀ ASU better

+0.2 #57

68 plays #53

Pace

◀ ASU faster

65 plays #90

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ASU has the ball

Even matchup

	ASU off	KSU def	Edge
Points / game	31.6 #41	21.7 #38	Even
Yards / play	5.87 #64	5.29 #49	Even
PPA / play	+0.22 #27	+0.03 #31	Even
Success rate	49% #10	36% #11	Even

When KSU has the ball

Even matchup

	KSU off	ASU def	Edge
Points / game	31.2 #44	23.8 #61	Even
Yards / play	6.51 #22	5.00 #33	Even
PPA / play	+0.25 #19	+0.08 #56	KSU
Success rate	46% #37	40% #51	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

ASU scoring against the KSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ASU scored	7.6 #35	10.3 #33	17.9 #30	7.2 #43	6.4 #84	13.7 #62
KSU allowed	3.8 #34	7.4 #66	11.2 #47	4.1 #32	6.3 #66	10.4 #38

KSU scoring against the ASU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
KSU scored	6.0 #66	8.6 #60	14.6 #61	9.4 #14	7.2 #63	16.7 #25
ASU allowed	5.7 #82	7.6 #71	13.2 #77	4.2 #35	6.3 #66	10.6 #40

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.