Kansas State @ Houston: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 10, 2024)

Sat, Nov 2, 2024, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 10 · at Houston · Conference game

Weather at kickoff76°F13 mphgusts 22Wet0.1 mmWet Over 45% of 309 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Kansas State

7-1 · Power #20

final

Final

Houston

3-5 · Power #76

▲ winner

Closing spread

KSU -9.5

✓ HOU W

Total

44.5

▼ Under · 43 pts

Model before kickoff

KSU 27–16 HOU

✗ KSU (78%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenKSU -13

CloseKSU -9.5

Total46.5 → 44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenKSU -13

3.5 → HOU

CloseKSU -9.5

3.5 pts toward Houston

Total

Open46.5

▼ 2

Close44.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened KSU -13 · closed KSU -9.5 · moved 3.5 toward HOUmodel KSU -15.5

model KSU -15.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 8.5–10.5 since 2023: won 77%, covered 51% (48 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 3.5+ pts toward the underdog: that team covered 60% (25 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenKSU -13

CloseKSU -9.5

Total46.5 → 44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like KSU as a 9.5-point road favorite at HOU, the favorite won 5, covered 3, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: HOU won 24–19 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 43 points stayed under 44.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 74%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 52%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 3.3 against an average line of 9.4; 49.5 points a game (usually 54.7). Of the 3 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	AUB @ SC 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & total	-7	17–21	L	U45.25
Close	WISC @ NEB 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & spread	-10	15–14	L	U40.5
Close	MEM @ CLT 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & season form	-10	44–38	L	O51.5
Close	ARIZ @ ASU 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & situation	-12.5	59–23	W	O49.25
Close	LOU @ PITT 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar total & situation	-7	21–38	L	O45
Close	WIS @ IU 2023 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & situation	-9.5	14–20	L	U45
Close	CAL @ ARIZ 2021 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & total	-7	3–10	L	U47
Close	LOU @ BC 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & total	-13.5	33–34	L	O48.25
Close	TOL @ CMU 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar situation & spread	-10	32–17	W	U54.5
Close	TEX @ ISU 2023 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & total	-7.5	26–16	W	U44.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
KSU LWLWL	3-5	38%	1-3	3-5
HOU –LWLW	4-2	67%	2-1	3-2

Venue/role: KSU away, as favorite; HOU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
KSU UOOOO	5-3	63%	7-1
HOU –UUOU	1-5	17%	3-5

Stayed under: it needed 16 in the 4th quarter and got 14. 55% of games with totals 40.5–48.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
KSU	8-2 80%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%
HOU	3-7 30%	5-3 63%	2-6 25%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

KSU 1–0 HOU KSU leads · 1 game since 2023 · KSU has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 28 2023	Houston 0 @ Kansas State 41	KSU -18	KSU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

KSU+11.5 →+13.5▲ 2.0#16

HOU−3.5 →−2.7▲ 0.8#77

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW9

KSU

Longer bar = better

HOU

#22

Offense

◀ KSU better

#129

#39

Defense

◀ KSU better

#58

+0.4 #46

Turnovers

◀ KSU better

−0.6 #107

64 plays #103

Pace

◀ KSU faster

60 plays #124

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When KSU has the ball

Advantage: KSU offense

	KSU off	HOU def	Edge
Points / game	32.8 #35	22.4 #55	Even
Yards / play	6.83 #17	5.38 #57	KSU
PPA / play	+0.30 #12	+0.13 #88	KSU
Success rate	47% #22	38% #31	Even

When HOU has the ball

Advantage: KSU defense

	HOU off	KSU def	Edge
Points / game	14.1 #137	21.4 #41	KSU
Yards / play	4.98 #123	5.37 #56	KSU
PPA / play	−0.09 #132	+0.04 #36	KSU
Success rate	36% #124	37% #21	KSU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

KSU scoring against the HOU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
KSU scored	6.4 #62	8.0 #74	14.4 #63	10.3 #11	8.1 #41	18.4 #9
HOU allowed	6.5 #98	5.5 #30	12.0 #66	4.6 #41	5.8 #55	10.4 #40

HOU scoring against the KSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
HOU scored	3.0 #122	5.9 #116	8.9 #123	1.5 #133	3.8 #132	5.3 #134
KSU allowed	4.3 #46	7.1 #64	11.4 #57	4.6 #41	5.4 #47	10.0 #31

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.