TCU @ Baylor: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 10, 2024)

Sat, Nov 2, 2024, 8:00 PM EDTWeek 10 · at Baylor · Conference game

Weather at kickoff77°F14 mphgusts 22DryWeather watch ›

TCU

5-3 · Power #34

final

Final

Baylor

4-4 · Power #39

▲ winner

Closing spread

BAY -2.5

✓ BAY W

Total

62.5

▲ Over · 71 pts

Model before kickoff

TCU 28–30 BAY

✓ BAY (56%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenBAY -3

CloseBAY -2.5

Total64.5 → 62.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenBAY -3

0.5 → TCU

CloseBAY -2.5

0.5 pts toward TCU

Total

Open64.5

▼ 2

Close62.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened BAY -3 · closed BAY -2.5 · moved 0.5 toward TCUmodel BAY -0.5

model BAY -0.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 57%, covered 49% (175 games)ⓘ

Moved off 3Too few earlier games to rateⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenBAY -3

CloseBAY -2.5

Total64.5 → 62.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like BAY as a 2.5-point home favorite against TCU, the favorite won 8, covered 6, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: BAY won 37–34; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 71 points went over 62.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 6.1 against an average line of 2.9; 69.7 points a game (usually 53.1). Of the 3 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	TTU vs UCF 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & rest	-2.5	24–23	L	U59.5
Very close	KSU vs TCU 2021 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	31–12	W	U58.5
Very close	KU vs TCU 2024 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & spread	-1.5	27–38	L	O58.5
Very close	TTU vs KU 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	43–28	W	O63.5
Very close	SMU vs HOU 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & situation	-3.5	77–63	W	O66
Very close	WVU vs TEX 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2.25	31–23	W	U56.5
Very close	TULN vs SMU 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar situation & season form	-3.5	59–24	W	O65
Very close	TCU vs TTU 2024 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & total	-5	35–34	L	O66
Very close	TTU vs BAY 2022 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & spread	-1.5	17–45	L	O61
Very close	TTU vs TCU 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & situation	-2.5	35–28	W	O59.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TCU –WLWL	2-5	29%	2-1	2-0
BAY LLLWW	5-3	63%	3-1	3-1

Venue/role: TCU away, as underdog; BAY home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TCU –OUUO	4-3	57%	5-3
BAY OOOOO	5-3	63%	4-4

Went over in Q4. Of 122 earlier overs in games with totals 58.5–66.5, 30% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TCU	6-4 60%	3-6 33%	5-4 56%
BAY	4-6 40%	6-4 60%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

TCU 1–0 BAY TCU leads · 1 game since 2023 · TCU has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 18 2023	Baylor 17 @ TCU 42	TCU -13	TCU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TCU+7.0 →+5.4▼ 1.6#43

BAY−3.0 →+3.3▲ 6.3#55

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW9

TCU

Longer bar = better

BAY

#36

Offense

◀ TCU better

#55

#61

Defense

Even

#55

−1.4 #134

Turnovers

BAY better ▶

0.0 #77

69 plays #39

Pace

◀ TCU faster

65 plays #88

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TCU has the ball

Even matchup

	TCU off	BAY def	Edge
Points / game	32.5 #37	25.9 #80	TCU
Yards / play	6.28 #42	5.19 #42	Even
PPA / play	+0.20 #39	+0.11 #74	TCU
Success rate	47% #25	37% #22	Even

When BAY has the ball

Even matchup

	BAY off	TCU def	Edge
Points / game	33.1 #33	28.3 #95	BAY
Yards / play	6.31 #39	4.99 #32	Even
PPA / play	+0.14 #70	+0.12 #81	Even
Success rate	43% #79	39% #37	TCU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

TCU scoring against the BAY defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TCU scored	6.5 #56	10.3 #35	16.8 #43	7.1 #48	8.6 #27	15.8 #37
BAY allowed	7.3 #110	8.3 #80	15.5 #103	4.6 #41	4.9 #31	9.5 #23

BAY scoring against the TCU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BAY scored	6.4 #63	9.9 #41	16.3 #46	8.5 #26	8.4 #31	16.9 #24
TCU allowed	6.0 #87	9.4 #104	15.4 #99	7.4 #107	5.5 #52	12.9 #81

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.