TCU @ Kansas: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2024)

Sat, Sep 28, 2024, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 5 · at Kansas · Conference game

Weather at kickoff81°F13 mphgusts 25DryWindy Over 48% of 274 games since 2023Weather watch ›

TCU

2-2 · Power #34

▲ winner

Final

Kansas

1-3 · Power #35

final

Closing spread

KU -1.5

✓ TCU W

Total

59.5

▲ Over · 65 pts

Model before kickoff

TCU 29–31 KU

✗ KU (55%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenKU -1.5

CloseKU -1.5

Total59.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenKU -1.5

no move

CloseKU -1.5

No change since the open

Total

Open59.5

no move

Close59.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened KU -1.5 · unchangedmodel KU -2

model KU -2

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 0.5–2.5 since 2023: won 47%, covered 45% (74 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenKU -1.5

CloseKU -1.5

Total59.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like KU as a 1.5-point home favorite against TCU, the favorite won 7, covered 6, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: TCU won 38–27 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 65 points went over 59.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 56%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 9 against an average line of 2.7; 54 points a game (usually 53.2). Of the 2 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	TTU vs UCF 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar total & rest	-2.5	24–23	L	U59.5
Very close	KSU vs TCU 2021 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & situation	-3.5	31–12	W	U58.5
Very close	TTU vs TCU 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar total & spread	-2.5	35–28	W	O59.5
Very close	KU vs TTU 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar total & spread	-3.5	13–16	L	U61.5
Very close	TTU vs KSU 2023 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & rest	-1	21–38	L	O57.5
Very close	MIA vs UVA 2021 · Week 5 · very close · similar season form & spread	-3.5	28–30	L	U63.5
Very close	UTAH vs ORE 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & total	-3	38–7	W	U58.5
Very close	WVU vs TEX 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2.25	31–23	W	U56.5
Very close	WISC vs PUR 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & situation	-1.5	35–24	W	O51.5
Very close	TULN vs SMU 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & team ratings	-3.5	59–24	W	O65

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TCU LLL–	0-3	0%	0-1	—
KU LLLL	0-4	0%	0-2	0-3

Venue/role: TCU away, as underdog; KU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TCU OUO–	2-1	67%	2-2
KU UUUO	1-3	25%	1-3

Went over in Q4. Of 159 earlier overs in games with totals 55.5–63.5, 29% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TCU	4-6 40%	3-6 33%	5-4 56%
KU	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TCU+7.0 →+7.5▲ 0.5#29

KU+7.2 →+7.0▼ 0.2#32

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

TCU

Longer bar = better

#33

Offense

◀ TCU better

#58

#86

Defense

KU better ▶

#48

−1.0 #114

Turnovers

◀ TCU better

−1.5 #130

73 plays #20

Pace

◀ TCU faster

65 plays #81

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TCU has the ball

Even matchup

	TCU off	KU def	Edge
Points / game	38.8 #22	20.3 #48	TCU
Yards / play	6.26 #53	4.83 #45	Even
PPA / play	+0.27 #28	+0.04 #59	TCU
Success rate	49% #29	36% #39	Even

When KU has the ball

Advantage: KU offense

	KU off	TCU def	Edge
Points / game	28.3 #81	32.0 #112	KU
Yards / play	6.28 #51	4.91 #47	Even
PPA / play	+0.17 #62	+0.16 #95	KU
Success rate	47% #36	42% #91	KU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

TCU scoring against the KU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TCU scored	7.8 #44	13.0 #20	20.8 #30	8.5 #33	9.5 #23	18.0 #27
KU allowed	3.3 #39	6.8 #60	10.0 #53	1.5 #10	8.8 #116	10.3 #55

KU scoring against the TCU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
KU scored	3.5 #106	13.5 #17	17.0 #56	7.0 #60	4.3 #107	11.3 #94
TCU allowed	6.0 #91	10.3 #108	16.3 #104	7.8 #104	8.0 #102	15.8 #114

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.