Fresno State @ UNLV: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2024)

Sat, Sep 28, 2024, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 5 · at UNLV · Conference game

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Fresno State

3-1 · Power #84

final

Final

UNLV

3-0 · Power #42

▲ winner

Closing spread

UNLV -2.5

✓ UNLV W

Total

49.5

▲ Over · 73 pts

Model before kickoff

FRES 24–28 UNLV

✓ UNLV (59%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUNLV -3.5

CloseUNLV -2.5

Total52.5 → 49.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenUNLV -3.5

1 → FRES

CloseUNLV -2.5

1 pt toward Fresno State

Total

Open52.5

▼ 3

Close49.5

Down 3 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened UNLV -3.5 · closed UNLV -2.5 · moved 1 toward FRESmodel UNLV -7

model UNLV -7

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 57%, covered 49% (128 games)ⓘ

Crossed 3Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 52% (33 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUNLV -3.5

CloseUNLV -2.5

Total52.5 → 49.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like UNLV as a 2.5-point home favorite against FRES, the favorite won 7, covered 4, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: UNLV won 59–14; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 73 points went over 49.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 3.5 against an average line of 3.3; 43.3 points a game (usually 53). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	AUB vs ARK 2024 · Week 4 · close · similar spread & team ratings	-2.5	14–24	L	U53.5
Close	WVU vs VT 2021 · Week 3 · close · similar spread & season form	-2	27–21	W	U49.5
Close	ARK vs MSST 2021 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & spread	-4	31–28	L	O53.5
Close	USA vs TROY 2022 · Week 8 · close · similar spread & total	-3	6–10	L	U47
Close	BC vs MSU 2024 · Week 4 · close · similar team ratings & spread	-4.5	23–19	L	U45.5
Close	LIB vs ARMY 2021 · Week 13 · close · similar spread & total	-3	16–31	L	U51.75
Close	WSU vs CAL 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar spread & situation	-4	28–9	W	U52.5
Close	DUKE vs NCSU 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	24–3	W	U42.5
Close	JMU vs USA 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar total & spread	-3	31–23	W	O49.5
Close	UTSA vs UAB 2021 · Week 12 · close · similar spread & situation	-3.75	34–31	L	O53.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
FRES –LWW	2-1	67%	1-0	—
UNLV –WW	2-0	100%	1-0	1-0

Venue/role: FRES away, as underdog; UNLV home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
FRES –OUU	1-2	33%	3-1
UNLV –OU	1-1	50%	3-0

Went over in Q4. Of 237 earlier overs in games with totals 45.5–53.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
FRES	6-4 60%	4-5 44%	4-5 44%
UNLV	6-4 60%	6-3 67%	6-3 67%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

FRES 1–0 UNLV FRES leads · 1 game since 2023 · FRES has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 28 2023	UNLV 24 @ Fresno State 31	FRES -10.5	UNLV W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

FRES−2.4 →+1.6▲ 4.0#62

UNLV−2.0 →+4.6▲ 6.6#48

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

FRES

Longer bar = better

UNLV

#68

Offense

Even

#65

#44

Defense

UNLV better ▶

#23

+1.3 #17

Turnovers

Even

+1.3 #12

68 plays #51

Pace

Even

69 plays #41

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When FRES has the ball

Advantage: UNLV defense

	FRES off	UNLV def	Edge
Points / game	35.5 #37	13.7 #22	Even
Yards / play	5.98 #71	4.93 #49	UNLV
PPA / play	+0.14 #77	−0.10 #12	UNLV
Success rate	42% #85	31% #9	UNLV

When UNLV has the ball

Advantage: FRES defense

	UNLV off	FRES def	Edge
Points / game	40.7 #19	20.3 #49	UNLV
Yards / play	6.11 #61	4.88 #46	Even
PPA / play	+0.16 #70	−0.04 #30	FRES
Success rate	39% #108	38% #50	FRES

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

FRES scoring against the UNLV defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
FRES scored	10.0 #25	11.0 #41	21.0 #27	8.5 #33	6.0 #86	14.5 #60
UNLV allowed	4.7 #71	3.3 #22	8.0 #35	2.3 #17	3.3 #33	5.7 #20

UNLV scoring against the FRES defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UNLV scored	12.7 #8	11.0 #41	23.7 #18	6.7 #71	10.3 #18	17.0 #34
FRES allowed	3.3 #39	4.3 #27	7.5 #26	2.5 #20	10.3 #123	12.8 #83

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.