Fresno State @ New Mexico: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2024)

Sat, Sep 21, 2024, 8:30 PM EDTWeek 4 · at New Mexico · Conference game

Weather at kickoff66°F15 mphgusts 36DryWindy Over 48% of 274 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Fresno State

2-1 · Power #84

▲ winner

Final

New Mexico

0-3 · Power #111

final

Closing spread

FRES -11.5

✓ FRES W

Total

62.5

▼ Under · 59 pts

Model before kickoff

FRES 34–22 UNM

✓ FRES (81%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenFRES -16

CloseFRES -11.5

Total61.5 → 62.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenFRES -16

4.5 → UNM

CloseFRES -11.5

4.5 pts toward New Mexico

Total

Open61.5

▲ 1

Close62.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened FRES -16 · closed FRES -11.5 · moved 4.5 toward UNMmodel FRES -15.5

model FRES -15.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 9.5–13.5 since 2023: won 85%, covered 49% (53 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenFRES -16

CloseFRES -11.5

Total61.5 → 62.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like FRES as an 11.5-point road favorite at UNM, the favorite won 8, covered 5, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: FRES won 38–21; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 59 points stayed under 62.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 78%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 9.7 against an average line of 10.7; 61.5 points a game (usually 55.2). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	UTSA @ UNT 2021 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & total	-8.5	23–45	L	O59.5
Close	TOL @ CMU 2023 · Week 13 · close	-10	32–17	W	U54.5
Loose	CCU @ ULM 2022 · Week 6 · loose · similar rest	-12.5	28–21	L	U58
Loose	WAKE @ ODU 2023 · Week 3 · loose · similar rest & total	-13.75	27–24	L	U60.5
Loose	UL @ ARST 2023 · Week 10 · loose · similar rest	-7	17–37	L	U59.5
Loose	WKU @ CLT 2022 · Week 10 · loose · similar rest	-14.5	59–7	W	U72.5
Loose	MRSH @ CLT 2021 · Week 12 · loose · similar rest & total	-14.5	49–28	W	O62
Loose	MRSH @ UNT 2021 · Week 7 · loose · similar rest & situation	-11	49–21	W	O66
Loose	CCU @ ARST 2023 · Week 8 · loose	-8.5	27–17	W	U59.5
Loose	MEM @ UNT 2023 · Week 9 · loose · similar rest	-6.5	45–42	L	O69.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
FRES –LW	1-1	50%	—	1-1
UNM WWL	2-1	67%	1-0	2-1

Venue/role: FRES away, as favorite; UNM home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
FRES –OU	1-1	50%	2-1
UNM OOO	3-0	100%	0-3

Stayed under: it needed 25 in the 4th quarter and got 21. 46% of games with totals 58.5–66.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
FRES	6-4 60%	3-6 33%	5-4 56%
UNM	2-8 20%	5-5 50%	8-2 80%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

FRES 16–6 UNM FRES leads · 22 games since 1947 · FRES has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 18 2023	New Mexico 25 @ Fresno State 17	FRES -22	UNM W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

FRES−2.4 →+3.7▲ 6.1#53

UNM−11.4 →−15.7▼ 4.3#125

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

FRES

Longer bar = better

UNM

#75

Offense

Even

#74

#29

Defense

◀ FRES better

#135

+0.7 #43

Turnovers

◀ FRES better

+0.3 #64

68 plays #50

Pace

Even

68 plays #52

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When FRES has the ball

Advantage: FRES offense

	FRES off	UNM def	Edge
Points / game	34.7 #42	47.0 #136	FRES
Yards / play	6.25 #58	8.40 #135	FRES
PPA / play	+0.10 #94	+0.34 #132	FRES
Success rate	39% #107	56% #137	FRES

When UNM has the ball

Advantage: FRES defense

	UNM off	FRES def	Edge
Points / game	29.7 #77	20.0 #47	FRES
Yards / play	6.09 #67	4.42 #27	FRES
PPA / play	+0.20 #58	−0.10 #17	FRES
Success rate	41% #94	34% #23	FRES

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 132 FBS teams

FRES scoring against the UNM defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
FRES scored	10.7 #23	9.0 #61	19.7 #39	10.3 #16	4.7 #98	15.0 #52
UNM allowed	9.3 #117	10.0 #107	19.3 #117	11.7 #130	16.0 #131	27.7 #132

UNM scoring against the FRES defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UNM scored	11.3 #18	9.0 #61	20.3 #32	4.7 #97	4.7 #98	9.3 #108
FRES allowed	3.3 #49	3.3 #25	6.7 #21	3.3 #33	10.0 #122	13.3 #86

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.