New Mexico @ New Mexico State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2024)

Sat, Sep 28, 2024, 8:00 PM EDTWeek 5 · at New Mexico State

Weather at kickoff92°F8 mphgusts 15DryWeather watch ›

New Mexico

0-4 · Power #111

▲ winner

Final

New Mexico State

1-3 · Power #130

final

Closing spread

UNM -8.5

✓ UNM W

Total

53.5

▲ Over · 90 pts

Model before kickoff

UNM 32–25 NMSU

✓ UNM (69%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUNM -7

CloseUNM -8.5

Total58.5 → 53.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenUNM -7

1.5 → UNM

CloseUNM -8.5

1.5 pts toward New Mexico

Total

Open58.5

▼ 5

Close53.5

Down 5 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened UNM -7 · closed UNM -8.5 · moved 1.5 toward UNMmodel UNM -1.5

model UNM -1.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 6.5–10.5 since 2023: won 76%, covered 58% (90 games)ⓘ

Moved off 7Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 53% (43 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUNM -7

CloseUNM -8.5

Total58.5 → 53.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like UNM as an 8.5-point road favorite at NMSU, the favorite won 5, covered 4, and 3 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: UNM won 50–40; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 90 points went over 53.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 70%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 4.9 against an average line of 6.9; 52.1 points a game (usually 54.1). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	BGSU @ AKR 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & spread	-9	31–28	L	O49.5
Close	UNLV @ HAW 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & spread	-11	25–31	L	U56.5
Close	SJSU @ HAW 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & spread	-10	35–0	W	U57
Close	UNT @ FIU 2021 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & spread	-10	49–7	W	U57.25
Close	CAL @ STAN 2023 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & total	-6.5	27–15	W	U53.5
Close	USF @ TEM 2022 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & season form	-3.5	28–54	L	O49
Close	CMU @ BUFF 2023 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & total	-2.5	13–37	L	U52
Close	CONN @ FIU 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & situation	-5.5	33–12	W	U46.5
Loose	LT @ RICE 2021 · Week 13 · loose · similar rest	-4	31–35	L	O52.5
Loose	M-OH @ BGSU 2022 · Week 7 · loose · similar rest & spread	-7	13–17	L	U45

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UNM WWLL	2-2	50%	1-1	—
NMSU LWLL	1-3	25%	1-1	1-2

Venue/role: UNM away, as favorite; NMSU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UNM OOOU	3-1	75%	0-4
NMSU UUUU	0-4	0%	1-3

Went over in Q4. Of 237 earlier overs in games with totals 49.5–57.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UNM	2-8 20%	5-5 50%	7-3 70%
NMSU	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	2-8 20%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

UNM 0–1 NMSU NMSU leads · 1 game since 2023 · NMSU has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 16 2023	New Mexico State 27 @ New Mexico 17	UNM -2.5	NMSU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UNM−11.4 →−14.8▼ 3.4#124

NMSU−7.8 →−18.6▼ 10.8#132

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

UNM

Longer bar = better

NMSU

#72

Offense

◀ UNM better

#130

#135

Defense

NMSU better ▶

#95

−0.5 #101

Turnovers

◀ UNM better

−1.3 #126

71 plays #29

Pace

◀ UNM faster

64 plays #89

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UNM has the ball

Advantage: UNM offense

	UNM off	NMSU def	Edge
Points / game	27.5 #82	31.3 #109	UNM
Yards / play	6.06 #61	6.21 #115	UNM
PPA / play	+0.16 #70	+0.20 #111	UNM
Success rate	43% #74	38% #44	NMSU

When NMSU has the ball

Even matchup

	NMSU off	UNM def	Edge
Points / game	14.5 #131	44.8 #135	Even
Yards / play	3.31 #136	7.59 #135	Even
PPA / play	−0.09 #127	+0.32 #132	Even
Success rate	34% #125	54% #137	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

UNM scoring against the NMSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UNM scored	9.3 #26	8.5 #65	17.8 #48	3.5 #113	6.3 #76	9.8 #110
NMSU allowed	9.5 #123	8.3 #87	17.8 #116	5.0 #58	8.5 #114	13.5 #90

NMSU scoring against the UNM defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NMSU scored	3.3 #115	4.3 #121	7.5 #121	0.0 #132	7.0 #55	7.0 #124
UNM allowed	9.0 #117	11.8 #123	20.8 #124	9.5 #124	14.5 #133	24.0 #133

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.