Air Force @ Wyoming: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2024)

Sat, Sep 28, 2024, 8:00 PM EDTWeek 5 · at Wyoming · Conference game

Weather at kickoff74°F17 mphgusts 31DryWindy Over 48% of 274 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Air Force

1-2 · Power #108

final

Final

Wyoming

0-4 · Power #114

▲ winner

Closing spread

AFA -4.5

✓ WYO W

Total

33.5

▲ Over · 50 pts

Model before kickoff

AFA 18–15 WYO

✗ AFA (59%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenAFA -2.5

CloseAFA -4.5

Total36.5 → 33.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenAFA -2.5

2 → AFA

CloseAFA -4.5

2 pts toward Air Force

Total

Open36.5

▼ 3

Close33.5

Down 3 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened AFA -2.5 · closed AFA -4.5 · moved 2 toward AFAmodel WYO -3

model WYO -3

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 3.5–5.5 since 2023: won 67%, covered 51% (49 games)ⓘ

Crossed 3Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 45% (56 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenAFA -2.5

CloseAFA -4.5

Total36.5 → 33.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 3 games most like AFA as a 4.5-point road favorite at WYO, the favorite won 1, covered 1, and 1 went over the total.

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This game: WYO won 31–19 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 2 of the 3 similar games. 50 points went over 33.5, as in 1 of 3.

Favorite won

1 of 333%

Normal range · usually 60%

Favorite covered

1 of 333%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

1 of 333%

Normal range · usually 48%

Only 3 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 0.7 against an average line of 6.4; 50.7 points a game (usually 53). Of the 1 over, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 3 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Loose	CMU @ BALL 2023 · Week 8 · loose · similar situation & spread	-5	17–24	L	U42
Loose	SDSU @ NEV 2022 · Week 8 · loose · similar rest	-7.25	23–7	W	U36
Loose	USM @ ARST 2023 · Week 4 · loose · similar season form	-7	37–44	L	O46.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
AFA LLL	0-3	0%	0-1	0-2
WYO LL–L	0-3	0%	0-1	0-2

Venue/role: AFA away, as favorite; WYO home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
AFA UUU	0-3	0%	1-2
WYO OU–O	2-1	67%	0-4

Went over in Q3. Of 12 earlier overs in games with totals 29.5–37.5, 33% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
AFA	4-6 40%	2-7-1 22%	3-7 30%
WYO	4-6 40%	3-6 33%	4-5 44%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

AFA 32–28 WYO (3 tied) AFA leads · 63 games since 1957 · AFA has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 14 2023	Wyoming 27 @ Air Force 34	AFA -12.5	WYO W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

AFA−9.1 →−13.1▼ 4.0#118

WYO−4.9 →−13.2▼ 8.3#119

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

AFA

Longer bar = better

WYO

#136

Offense

Even

#135

#41

Defense

◀ AFA better

#125

+0.7 #40

Turnovers

◀ AFA better

−1.0 #121

66 plays #68

Pace

◀ AFA faster

61 plays #118

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When AFA has the ball

Even matchup

	AFA off	WYO def	Edge
Points / game	10.3 #137	35.8 #127	Even
Yards / play	3.28 #137	6.29 #122	Even
PPA / play	−0.19 #136	+0.28 #128	Even
Success rate	31% #134	48% #123	Even

When WYO has the ball

Advantage: AFA defense

	WYO off	AFA def	Edge
Points / game	12.8 #133	18.0 #35	AFA
Yards / play	3.47 #135	5.41 #69	AFA
PPA / play	−0.14 #134	−0.07 #16	AFA
Success rate	29% #136	37% #43	AFA

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

AFA scoring against the WYO defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
AFA scored	4.7 #93	3.3 #127	8.0 #117	0.0 #132	2.3 #131	2.3 #134
WYO allowed	9.5 #123	12.5 #127	22.0 #128	13.0 #134	0.8 #2	13.8 #95

WYO scoring against the AFA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WYO scored	3.3 #115	5.3 #109	8.5 #114	0.0 #132	4.3 #109	4.3 #132
AFA allowed	5.7 #85	1.0 #3	6.7 #16	5.7 #72	5.7 #67	11.3 #67

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.