Air Force @ Baylor: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 3, 2024)

Sat, Sep 14, 2024, 7:30 PM EDTWeek 3 · at Baylor

Weather at kickoff92°F2 mphgusts 10DryWeather watch ›

Air Force

1-1 · Power #108

final

Final

Baylor

1-1 · Power #39

▲ winner

Closing spread

BAY -17.5

✓ BAY W

Total

40.5

▼ Under · 34 pts

Model before kickoff

AFA 13–30 BAY

✓ BAY (89%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenBAY -13

CloseBAY -17.5

Total43.5 → 40.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenBAY -13

4.5 → BAY

CloseBAY -17.5

4.5 pts toward Baylor

Total

Open43.5

▼ 3

Close40.5

Down 3 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened BAY -13 · closed BAY -17.5 · moved 4.5 toward BAYmodel BAY -14

model BAY -14

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 16.5–18.5 since 2023: won 94%, covered 50% (52 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenBAY -13

CloseBAY -17.5

Total43.5 → 40.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like BAY as a 17.5-point home favorite against AFA, the favorite won 10, covered 3, and 2 went over the total.

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This game: BAY won 31–3; the favorite covered, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 34 points stayed under 40.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 87%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

2 of 922%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 13.3 against an average line of 16.3; 46.3 points a game (usually 54.5). Of the 1 over, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	SJSU vs SDSU 2023 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & team ratings	-16.5	24–13	L	U48.5
Close	BC vs CONN 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & team ratings	-14.5	21–14	L	U49
Close	ILL vs FAU 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & situation	-16	23–17	L	U45.5
Loose	WVU vs BYU 2023 · Week 10 · loose · similar rest	-12.5	37–7	W	U48.5
Loose	TOL vs EMU 2023 · Week 11 · loose	-19.5	49–23	W	O45.5
Loose	APP vs ODU 2022 · Week 12 · loose · similar rest	-16	27–14	L	U50.5
Loose	USA vs ODU 2022 · Week 13 · loose · similar rest	-16.5	27–20	L	P47
Loose	NEB vs LT 2023 · Week 4 · loose · similar rest & situation	-20.5	28–14	L	U45
Loose	PITT vs VT 2022 · Week 6 · loose · similar rest & total	-14.5	45–29	W	O42
Loose	TROY vs TXST 2022 · Week 7 · loose · similar rest	-16.5	17–14	L	U47

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
AFA LL	0-2	0%	—	—
BAY WW	2-0	100%	1-0	1-0

Venue/role: AFA away, as underdog; BAY home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
AFA UU	0-2	0%	1-1
BAY UU	0-2	0%	1-1

Stayed under: it needed 15 in the 4th quarter and got 8. 53% of games with totals 36.5–44.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
AFA	5-5 50%	2-7-1 22%	4-6 40%
BAY	3-7 30%	5-5 50%	5-4 56%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

AFA−9.1 →−10.8▼ 1.7#113

BAY−3.0 →−0.7▲ 2.3#69

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW2

AFA

Longer bar = better

BAY

#132

Offense

BAY better ▶

#107

#32

Defense

Even

#29

+1.0 #34

Turnovers

◀ AFA better

−1.0 #117

68 plays #57

Pace

◀ AFA faster

66 plays #72

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When AFA has the ball

Advantage: BAY defense

	AFA off	BAY def	Edge
Points / game	14.0 #128	13.0 #36	BAY
Yards / play	3.21 #136	4.08 #29	BAY
PPA / play	−0.17 #134	−0.05 #44	BAY
Success rate	34% #129	26% #6	BAY

When BAY has the ball

Advantage: AFA defense

	BAY off	AFA def	Edge
Points / game	28.5 #84	11.5 #29	AFA
Yards / play	5.04 #109	4.27 #37	AFA
PPA / play	−0.04 #116	−0.10 #35	AFA
Success rate	35% #120	31% #27	AFA

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 81 FBS teams

AFA scoring against the BAY defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
AFA scored	7.0	3.5	10.5	0.0	3.5	3.5
BAY allowed	8.5	3.0	11.5	1.5	0.0	1.5

BAY scoring against the AFA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BAY scored	10.5	5.0	15.5	8.0	5.0	13.0
AFA allowed	7.0	0.0	7.0	0.0	4.5	4.5

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.