Colorado @ Colorado State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 3, 2024)

Sat, Sep 14, 2024, 7:30 PM EDTWeek 3 · at Colorado State

Weather at kickoff84°F9 mphgusts 14DryWeather watch ›

Colorado

1-1 · Power #25

▲ winner

Final

Colorado State

1-1 · Power #100

final

Closing spread

COLO -7.5

✓ COLO W

Total

58.5

▼ Under · 37 pts

Model before kickoff

COLO 31–25 CSU

✓ COLO (68%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenCOLO -7.5

CloseCOLO -7.5

Total59.5 → 58.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenCOLO -7.5

no move

CloseCOLO -7.5

No change since the open

Total

Open59.5

▼ 1

Close58.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened COLO -7.5 · unchangedmodel COLO -2.5

model COLO -2.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 6.5–8.5 since 2023: won 73%, covered 59% (59 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenCOLO -7.5

CloseCOLO -7.5

Total59.5 → 58.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like COLO as a 7.5-point road favorite at CSU, the favorite won 6, covered 4, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: COLO won 28–9; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 37 points stayed under 58.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 70%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 3.7 against an average line of 5.7; 57.9 points a game (usually 53.5). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	BOIS @ CSU 2023 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & rest	-7.5	30–31	L	O60
Very close	BYU @ STAN 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & total	-6.5	35–26	W	O57.5
Very close	GAST @ GASO 2021 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & season form	-6	21–14	W	U55
Very close	TOL @ NIU 2022 · Week 6 · very close · similar total & rest	-6.5	52–32	W	O59
Very close	CSU @ HAW 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & spread	-5.5	24–27	L	U53.75
Very close	NIU @ BALL 2022 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & total	-3.25	38–44	L	O58.5
Close	CMU @ OHIO 2021 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & season form	-5	30–27	L	U57.5
Close	KENT @ M-OH 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & total	-5	24–27	L	U56.5
Close	TOL @ BALL 2021 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & total	-4.5	22–12	W	U56.5
Close	TLSA @ USF 2021 · Week 7 · close · similar total & spread	-7	32–31	L	O55.75

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
COLO L–	0-1	0%	—	0-1
CSU LL	0-2	0%	0-1	0-1

Venue/role: COLO away, as favorite; CSU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
COLO O–	1-0	100%	1-1
CSU UO	1-1	50%	1-1

Stayed under: it needed 35 in the 4th quarter and got 13. 48% of games with totals 54.5–62.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
COLO	2-8 20%	5-3-1 63%	5-4 56%
CSU	4-6 40%	2-8 20%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

COLO 64–22 CSU (2 tied) COLO leads · 88 games since 1902 · COLO has won the last 7 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 16 2023	Colorado State 35 @ Colorado 43	COLO -23	CSU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

COLO+0.6 →−3.9▼ 4.5#85

CSU−8.3 →−8.6▼ 0.3#102

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW2

COLO

Longer bar = better

CSU

#69

Offense

◀ COLO better

#86

#103

Defense

Even

#110

−1.5 #126

Turnovers

Even

−1.0 #116

60 plays #113

Pace

Even

61 plays #107

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When COLO has the ball

Advantage: COLO offense

	COLO off	CSU def	Edge
Points / game	20.5 #109	34.5 #123	Even
Yards / play	6.42 #50	6.34 #115	COLO
PPA / play	+0.17 #64	+0.19 #107	COLO
Success rate	45% #53	42% #94	COLO

When CSU has the ball

Even matchup

	CSU off	COLO def	Edge
Points / game	19.0 #111	27.0 #100	Even
Yards / play	5.07 #107	5.84 #97	Even
PPA / play	+0.06 #92	+0.25 #115	CSU
Success rate	49% #35	43% #99	CSU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 81 FBS teams

COLO scoring against the CSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
COLO scored	7.0	1.5	8.5	5.0	7.0	12.0
CSU allowed	7.0	12.0	19.0	10.5	5.0	15.5

CSU scoring against the COLO defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CSU scored	5.0	7.0	12.0	3.5	3.5	7.0
COLO allowed	12.0	12.0	24.0	0.0	3.0	3.0

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.