Nevada @ Minnesota: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 3, 2024)

Sat, Sep 14, 2024, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 3 · at Minnesota

Weather at kickoff78°F9 mphgusts 20Wet0.0 mmWet Over 45% of 309 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Nevada

1-2 · Power #102

final

Final

Minnesota

1-1 · Power #26

▲ winner

Closing spread

MINN -17.5

✓ MINN W

Total

44.5

▼ Under · 27 pts

Model before kickoff

NEV 12–30 MINN

✓ MINN (90%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMINN -14.5

CloseMINN -17.5

Total43.5 → 44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenMINN -14.5

3 → MINN

CloseMINN -17.5

3 pts toward Minnesota

Total

Open43.5

▲ 1

Close44.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened MINN -14.5 · closed MINN -17.5 · moved 3 toward MINNmodel MINN -18

model MINN -18

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 16.5–18.5 since 2023: won 94%, covered 49% (49 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 47% (30 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMINN -14.5

CloseMINN -17.5

Total43.5 → 44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like MINN as a 17.5-point home favorite against NEV, the favorite won 10, covered 5, and 9 went over the total.

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This game: MINN won 27–0; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 27 points stayed under 44.5, as in 0 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 87%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

9 of 9100%

Above normal · usually 48%

Overs above normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: favorite by 15.4 against an average line of 16.8; 59.6 points a game (usually 54.5). Of the 7 overs, 3 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	JMU vs ODU 2023 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-19.5	30–27	L	O48
Close	USA vs ODU 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & team ratings	-16.5	27–20	L	P47
Close	TROY vs UL 2023 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & total	-15.5	31–24	L	O47.5
Close	MRSH vs ODU 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & total	-14	41–35	L	O47
Close	USA vs TXST 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & season form	-16	38–21	W	O46
Close	TOL vs EMU 2023 · Week 11 · close	-19.5	49–23	W	O45.5
Close	MIA vs UVA 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar rest	-18.5	29–26	L	O48
Close	FSU vs BC 2022 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & spread	-18.5	44–14	W	O48.5
Close	MD vs UVA 2023 · Week 3 · close · similar situation & rest	-16.25	42–14	W	O48.25
Close	MD vs IU 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & season form	-14	44–17	W	O50

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NEV WWL	2-1	67%	1-0	2-0
MINN LW	1-1	50%	1-1	1-0

Venue/role: NEV away, as underdog; MINN home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
NEV UOU	1-2	33%	1-2
MINN UO	1-1	50%	1-1

Stayed under: it needed 18 in the 4th quarter and got 0. 53% of games with totals 40.5–48.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NEV	3-7 30%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%
MINN	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	4-5 44%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

NEV−15.0 →−10.3▲ 4.7#111

MINN−1.4 →+2.7▲ 4.1#55

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW2

NEV

Longer bar = better

MINN

#82

Offense

MINN better ▶

#61

#95

Defense

MINN better ▶

#19

0.0 #76

Turnovers

MINN better ▶

+2.0 #7

68 plays #54

Pace

◀ NEV faster

64 plays #82

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When NEV has the ball

Advantage: MINN defense

	NEV off	MINN def	Edge
Points / game	23.0 #101	9.5 #23	MINN
Yards / play	5.86 #74	3.62 #17	MINN
PPA / play	+0.12 #76	−0.15 #23	MINN
Success rate	42% #76	29% #14	MINN

When MINN has the ball

Advantage: MINN offense

	MINN off	NEV def	Edge
Points / game	32.5 #61	25.0 #94	MINN
Yards / play	5.24 #99	5.68 #94	Even
PPA / play	+0.20 #58	+0.18 #103	MINN
Success rate	51% #26	40% #87	MINN

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 FBS teams

NEV scoring against the MINN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NEV scored	7.0 #16	5.3 #23	12.3 #24	8.3 #13	2.3 #30	10.7 #28
MINN allowed	0.0	3.5	3.5	3.0	3.0	6.0

MINN scoring against the NEV defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MINN scored	1.5	14.0	15.5	7.0	10.0	17.0
NEV allowed	4.7 #17	9.0 #22	13.7 #21	3.0 #8	8.3 #27	11.3 #17

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.