Kennesaw State @ San José State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 3, 2024)

Sat, Sep 14, 2024, 7:00 PM EDTWeek 3 · at San José State

Weather at kickoff84°F14 mphgusts 25DryWindy Over 48% of 274 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Kennesaw State

0-2 · Power #133

final

Final

San José State

2-0 · Power #86

▲ winner

Closing spread

SJSU -16.5

✓ SJSU W

Total

41.5

▼ Under · 41 pts

Model before kickoff

KENN 13–31 SJSU

✓ SJSU (90%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenSJSU -19

CloseSJSU -16.5

Total44.5 → 41.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenSJSU -19

2.5 → KENN

CloseSJSU -16.5

2.5 pts toward Kennesaw State

Total

Open44.5

▼ 3

Close41.5

Down 3 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened SJSU -19 · closed SJSU -16.5 · moved 2.5 toward KENNmodel SJSU -22

model SJSU -22

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 15.5–17.5 since 2023: won 94%, covered 43% (54 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 46% (26 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenSJSU -19

CloseSJSU -16.5

Total44.5 → 41.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like SJSU as a 16.5-point home favorite against KENN, the favorite won 7, covered 4, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: SJSU won 31–10; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 41 points stayed under 41.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 85%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 11.1 against an average line of 17.3; 43.7 points a game (usually 54). Of the 3 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	USA vs CMU 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & situation	-16	30–34	L	O47.5
Close	ECU vs NAVY 2022 · Week 4 · close · similar spread	-16.5	20–23	L	U48.5
Loose	AFA vs NAVY 2022 · Week 5 · loose · similar rest & spread	-14	13–10	L	U38
Loose	AFA vs CSU 2022 · Week 12 · loose · similar rest	-21.5	24–12	L	U43
Loose	M-OH vs AKR 2023 · Week 11 · loose · similar season form	-17	19–0	W	U37.5
Loose	SDSU vs UNM 2021 · Week 6 · loose · similar total & season form	-19.5	31–7	W	U42.5
Loose	ISU vs OHIO 2022 · Week 3 · loose · similar situation & rest	-20	43–10	W	O48
Loose	AFA vs UNM 2022 · Week 11 · loose · similar rest	-21	35–3	W	O37.25
Loose	CIN vs M-OH 2023 · Week 3 · loose · similar rest & total	-14.25	24–31	L	O44.25
Loose	TOL vs NIU 2023 · Week 5 · loose · similar rest	-13	35–33	L	O48

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
KENN –L	0-1	0%	—	0-1
SJSU WW	2-0	100%	1-0	1-0

Venue/role: KENN away, as underdog; SJSU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
KENN –U	0-1	0%	0-2
SJSU OU	1-1	50%	2-0

Stayed under: it needed 8 in the 4th quarter and got 7. 54% of games with totals 37.5–45.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
KENNlast 3	0-3 0%	1-1 50%	1-1 50%
SJSU	8-2 80%	7-2-1 78%	4-5 44%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

KENN−17.4 →−20.0▼ 2.6#132

SJSU−2.2 →−3.9▼ 1.7#84

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW2

KENN

Longer bar = better

SJSU

#131

Offense

SJSU better ▶

#88

#121

Defense

SJSU better ▶

#32

0.0 #85

Turnovers

SJSU better ▶

+1.5 #18

59 plays #120

Pace

SJSU faster ▶

67 plays #62

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When KENN has the ball

Advantage: SJSU defense

	KENN off	SJSU def	Edge
Points / game	13.0 #130	15.5 #47	SJSU
Yards / play	3.91 #132	3.74 #20	SJSU
PPA / play	−0.11 #128	−0.22 #11	SJSU
Success rate	28% #134	35% #50	SJSU

When SJSU has the ball

Advantage: SJSU offense

	SJSU off	KENN def	Edge
Points / game	29.5 #75	31.0 #112	SJSU
Yards / play	5.26 #98	6.69 #123	SJSU
PPA / play	+0.11 #81	+0.36 #129	SJSU
Success rate	40% #97	48% #121	SJSU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 68 FBS teams

KENN scoring against the SJSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
KENN scored	5.0	1.5	6.5	1.5	5.0	6.5
SJSU allowed	10.5	1.5	12.0	3.5	0.0	3.5

SJSU scoring against the KENN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SJSU scored	10.5	3.5	14.0	3.5	12.0	15.5
KENN allowed	7.0	13.5	20.5	7.0	3.5	10.5

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.