UTEP @ Liberty: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 3, 2024)

Sat, Sep 14, 2024, 6:00 PM EDTWeek 3 · at Liberty · Conference game

Weather at kickoff77°F7 mphgusts 20DryWeather watch ›

UTEP

0-2 · Power #128

final

Final

Liberty

2-0 · Power #95

▲ winner

Closing spread

LIB -23.5

✓ UTEP W

Total

57.5

▼ Under · 38 pts

Model before kickoff

UTEP 16–40 LIB

✓ LIB (96%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenLIB -22.5

CloseLIB -23.5

Total57.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenLIB -22.5

1 → LIB

CloseLIB -23.5

1 pt toward Liberty

Total

Open57.5

no move

Close57.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened LIB -22.5 · closed LIB -23.5 · moved 1 toward LIBmodel LIB -27

model LIB -27

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 21.5–25.5 since 2023: won 93%, covered 39% (57 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenLIB -22.5

CloseLIB -23.5

Total57.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like LIB as a 23.5-point home favorite against UTEP, the favorite won 9, covered 2, and 2 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: LIB won 28–10; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 8 of the 10 similar games. 38 points stayed under 57.5, as in 8 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 91%

Favorite covered

2 of 1020%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

2 of 1020%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 14.4 against an average line of 23.7; 48.4 points a game (usually 54.8). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	APP vs GASO 2021 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & total	-24.5	27–3	L	U55
Close	ASU vs EMU 2022 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & total	-20.5	21–30	L	U56.5
Close	UL vs TXST 2021 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & situation	-21	45–0	W	U58
Close	CCU vs TXST 2021 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & team ratings	-24.5	35–21	L	U60
Close	CIN vs USF 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & total	-27	28–24	L	U58.5
Close	BYU vs USU 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar total & rest	-26	38–26	L	O60
Close	TULN vs TLSA 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & spread	-24.5	24–22	L	U52.75
Close	UCF vs GT 2022 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & total	-21	27–10	L	U56.5
Close	FRES vs UNM 2021 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & spread	-24	34–7	W	U51
Close	BYU vs USF 2021 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & spread	-23.5	35–27	L	O54.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UTEP –L	0-1	0%	—	—
LIB LL	0-2	0%	0-1	0-2

Venue/role: UTEP away, as underdog; LIB home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UTEP –U	0-1	0%	0-2
LIB OU	1-1	50%	2-0

Stayed under: it needed 27 in the 4th quarter and got 7. 51% of games with totals 53.5–61.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UTEP	2-8 20%	5-4 56%	4-5 44%
LIB	9-1 90%	4-6 40%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

UTEP 0–3 LIB LIB leads · 3 games since 2023 · LIB has won the last 3 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 25 2023	Liberty 42 @ UTEP 28	LIB -18	UTEP W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UTEP−11.5 →−16.3▼ 4.8#130

LIB+3.4 →+5.0▲ 1.6#41

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW2

UTEP

Longer bar = better

LIB

#92

Offense

LIB better ▶

#43

#112

Defense

LIB better ▶

#68

−0.5 #86

Turnovers

LIB better ▶

0.0 #68

58 plays #121

Pace

LIB faster ▶

70 plays #36

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UTEP has the ball

Advantage: LIB defense

	UTEP off	LIB def	Edge
Points / game	15.5 #125	24.0 #85	LIB
Yards / play	5.41 #89	5.17 #77	Even
PPA / play	+0.22 #55	−0.03 #54	Even
Success rate	39% #99	36% #56	LIB

When LIB has the ball

Advantage: LIB offense

	LIB off	UTEP def	Edge
Points / game	35.5 #45	33.5 #119	LIB
Yards / play	7.19 #30	6.01 #103	LIB
PPA / play	+0.27 #47	+0.27 #118	LIB
Success rate	46% #50	44% #107	LIB

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 55 FBS teams

UTEP scoring against the LIB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UTEP scored	10.5	1.5	12.0	0.0	3.5	3.5
LIB allowed	6.5	7.0	13.5	3.5	7.0	10.5

LIB scoring against the UTEP defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LIB scored	5.0	8.0	13.0	5.0	17.5	22.5
UTEP allowed	6.5	11.5	18.0	7.5	6.5	14.0

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.